The Role Of Protein And Carbohydrate Utilisation During...

Introduction Post-exercise nutrition, especially protein, plays an important role of the training regimen amongst athletic population. Post-exercise nutrition is used to improve performance and enhance the body’s recovery process following exercise. This review will focus on the role of protein and carbohydrate utilisation post-exercise and there effects on protein synthesis. Anabolic and catabolic processes are controlled by the neuroendocrine system in response to training. Resistance training produces a catabolic state, in which the muscle proteins are broken down. During recovery an anabolic state predominately takes over leading to muscle repair and growth (Plowman Smith, 2014). The macronutrient protein has grasped attention during the recovery phase of exercise. Protein plays multiple important roles throughout the entire body, regulating every chemical reaction and used in the structural tissue within the human body (Brown, Miller Eason, 2006). Supplementary protein offers three main common types of complete protein; whey, casein and egg. These complete proteins differ in the role of recovery post exercise (Campbell Spano, 2011). The macronutrients protein and carbohydrates have their own functions within the body but work together to generate an anabolic state within the body when ingested post-exercise (Poole, Wilborn, Taylor Kerksick, 2010). Protein and Carbohydrates The main function of protein is a regulator, including the actions of some hormones,Show MoreRelatedDiabetes Is A Syndrome Of Impaired Metabolism Of Fat And Protein1494 Words   |  6 Pagesmellitus is a syndrome of impaired metabolism of fat, carbohydrate and protein which can be caused by either low sensitivity of the tissues to the insulin hormone or lack of insulin secretion. Type 1 diabetes is also known as insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus and it is caused by lack of insulin secretion. The cause of diabetes type 1 is not fully understood, however, viral infections, heredity and autoimmune disorders play a important role in the triggering of type 1 diabetes.It’s also known thatRead MoreEssay about Dietary Supplements Used by Athletes: Creatine1458 Words   |  6 Pageswhen a French scientist reported finding this constituent of meat† (Demant Rhodes, 1999). This organic compound is manufactured endogenously by the liver and kidneys â€Å"from the amino acids glycine, arginine and methionine† for energy stipulation during muscular contraction. (Arazi, Rahmaninia, Hoseini, Asadi, 2011). Creatine is either converted into free form Cr or phosphorylated form as known as creatine phosphate (CP). The endogenous production and exogenous consumption of Cr yields about 1Read MoreNutrition in Plants – Mineral Nutrition3545 Words   |  15 Pagesnutrition in plants. OBJECTIVES After completing this lesson, you will be able to : define the terms mineral nutrition, macro and micro nutritients; explain the functions of minerals with reference to the techniques of hydroponics and aeroponics; list the role of macro and micro nutrients; mention the deficiency symptoms of macro and micro nutrients; differentiate between autotrophic and heterotrophic nutrition in plant; describe the saprophytic and parasitic modes of nutrition in plant. 9.1 WHAT IS PLANTRead MoreEffects of Vigorous and Moderate Exercise on Health-Related Outcomes10786 Words   |  43 Pagesï » ¿Effects of vigorous and moderate exercise on health-related outcomes Introduction In many developed countries, physical inactivity is becoming a public health problem as a result of fewer numbers of people embracing physical activity(Wardle and Steptoe, 2003). Population-based studies that have been conducted in USA and other developed countries in Europe suggest that the education level of individuals directly affects their physical activity (Trost et al., 2002). Thus those with lower levelsRead MoreChronic Bronchitis Is A Medical Condition That Enhances The Swelling And Mucus2223 Words   |  9 Pagesblood and urine in smokers and in patients with COPD. Presences of oxidative stress have important consequences for the COPD pathogenesis by damaging the lipids, proteins, DNA and carbohydrates, oxidative inactivation of antiproteases, airspace epithelial injury, etc (Barnes, 2000). Proteases damage the lungs elastin and collagen matrix proteins by neutrophil elastase enzyme, whereas anti-protease protects against their degradation. Increased production of protease or decreased the production of anti-protease

Nineteen Lessons Of Environmental Sociology By Kenneth...

The authors of the book â€Å"Twenty Lessons in Environmental Sociology†, Kenneth Gould and Tammy Lewis, provide a critique on the interactions of various social systems and ecosystems by many different scholars and institutions. A combination of neo-Marxist ideas are used as a base of the world-system theory to create the system for the neoliberal theories (Gould and Lewis p. 39). The world-system theory is looking into economic relationships based off of social changes that are occurring around the world and determining whether the country is benefitting or not (Gould Lewis p.39). This theory is built upon the perspective of the modernization theory; these societies are being directly affected by the lack of modernization within their†¦show more content†¦These theories are closely related when looking at their end goals of wanting to change social institutions that will develop a positive change in the environment. However, when examining the reflexive modernizat ion theory in relation to environmental issues, societies need to think more about what they don’t want rather than want they do want. For example, when evaluating a solution for polluted rivers, rather than looking at what is wanted to better the problem, society should look into what they do not want and evaluate the issue from there. This is where a difference in theories is noted. Both theories show that the idea is not to abandon capitalism, but rather renegotiate and reorganize the problem entirely (Gould and Lewis p.43). The system is then broken down at the individual level and changes are made throughout the system into the institutional level. However, the ecological theory looks to modernize the system as a whole, rather than radically changing it. The â€Å"Cradle to Cradle Design† by McDonough and Braungart is an example of the ecological modernization theory of reintegrating products and wastes back into society. Promoting this design of reintegration i s represented at the individual level as products are being reused rather than destroyed causing unnecessary wastes and pollution.

The Rise Of The Papacy Essay - 947 Words

The Rise of the Papacy There many Roman Catholics worldwide, who looks up to the Pope’s authority. The great question is, what is the foundation of the Papacy? The rise of the papacy came at a very important time in history, after the fall of Rome. In 380 CE, Emperor Theodosius I, made Nicene Christianity the state church of the Roman Empire. After this establishment, and the church was the top religion in Rome, order was a must. The head of the church normally known as the bishop, now known as the pope. What does pope mean? â€Å"The word pope simply means â€Å"father†, and in early times was used to refer to any important and respected Bishop.† The Bishop of Rome was looked upon as the chief judge similar to the Supreme Court. This position was suited to keep order in the church. â€Å"The first rise of the Papacy is undoubtedly to be sought for in the corruption of human nature.† Catholics believes that the papacy began with one of Jesusâ₠¬â„¢ disciple, Peter. They hang this concept on one verse of scripture in the Bible. The Bible declares, â€Å"I also say to you that you are Peter, and upon this rock I will build My church: and the gates of Hades will not overpower it. I will give you the keys of the kingdom of heaven; and whatever you bind on earth shall have been bound in heaven, and what every you loose on earth shall have been loosed in heaven.† Since, Christ have put this charge on Peter many believe the papacy started with him. â€Å"While some claim that Clement wasShow MoreRelatedThe Rise of the Papacy948 Words   |  4 PagesINTRODUCTION This paper will look into the primary reasons for the rise of the Roman papacy to power, and a few of the many things that aided the papacy in getting there. The fall of the Roman Empire is clearly a key factor in the rise of the papacy, so a look into the factors that caused the fall of the Roman Empire is essential. Secondly, a look into how the church positioned itself, to step into the vacuum of power left behind by the fall of the Roman Empire will prove to be needed. Lastly,Read MoreThe Rise Of The Papacy1473 Words   |  6 PagesThe Rise of the Papacy Introduction The birth or the beginnings of the Papacy is a rather difficult task to really nail down to a specific time, place or person and also the growth of the Papacy was a rather slow and gradual process. In this modern age Rome has been associated with the birth place of the Papacy but history shows that Constantine moved the capital of the Roman Empire to Constantinople in the 4th century. In Constantinople the father of the church was referred to as the Pope. TheRead MoreThe Rise of the Papacy Essay1637 Words   |  7 PagesCHHI-301-D10 LUO FALL2013 PAPER 2 The Rise of the Papacy INTRO In the void left by the collapse of the Roman Empire, the bishop of Rome grew even more in both power and prestige beginning in the sixth century and continuing to the reformation in the ninth century. It is the aim of this paper to explain how and why the papacy in Rome became the center of power of the medieval world, the factors contributing to this dominance over Western Europe, and the positive and negative ramificationsRead MoreTHE RISE OF THE PAPACY Essay examples1637 Words   |  7 PagesIntroduction Early in history, the Roman papacy consolidated its power. It became one of the most influential organizations in the medieval period. This rise to power resulted from the decline in the Western Empire, the leadership of Roman bishops, and special grants that gave the church land holdings. This rise to power caused some positive ramifications, such as the protection of the church from heresy. However, the absolute power of the pope also caused corruption and abuses, many of which wouldRead MoreEssay about The Rise of the Papacy1770 Words   |  8 PagesThe Rise of the Papacy Barry Blankenship CHHI 301 - History of the Christian Church I Professor – Dr. Jeffrey S. Mayfield February 20, 2012 The Fall of A Great Empire and the Rise of the Papacy Before the fall of the Roman Empire you must stop and look at the power that was held within the millions of miles of land, building, people, cities, kings, and customs. The Roman Empire was not known for being just another city or empire but it was known for its strength, power and victoriesRead MoreThe Roman Empire And The Rise And Fall Of The Papacy1337 Words   |  6 Pagesin profound changes that demand a theological response. A candid but rational inquiry into the progress and establishment of Christianity may be considered a very essential part of the history of the Roman Empire and the rise and fall of the papacy. The history of the Papacy began over two thousand years ago with the reign of John Paul II. Peter, the humble fisherman of Galilee and an Apostle of Jesus Christ, became the figure head and the basis for the institution that has outlined not only theRead MoreThe Christian Era Of The Western Roman Empire1424 Words   |  6 Pagesthe full potential of the papacy was Leo the Great. In his two decades of servitude, he planted the seeds of Christian control to come over the next millennia in asserting the pope’s authority over other bishops by the power of the keys, granted by Jesus to Peter. In doing this Leo the Great positioned the pope as the sole arbiter in holy matters, establishing the position as that of enormous spiritual power. With the collapse of Roman authority in the West, the papacy found itself well positionedRead MoreChhi 301 Paper 21749 Words   |  7 PagesPAPER 2 Submitted to: Dr. Nickens Liberty University Online Lynchburg, VA by Richard M. Shouse June 17, 2013 Introduction: In response to the how and why the papacy in Rome became the center of power as it did. Shortly after the Fall of the Roman Empire there was a fight for power between several barbarian tribes like the Ostrogoth’s, Goths, Visigoths, Vandals, Saxons, Huns, Franks, Lombard’s, Burundians, and others. The two major tribes were the Ostrogoth’sRead MoreThe Fall Of The Roman Empire1216 Words   |  5 Pagesthe void left by the fall of Western Roman Empire. Several factors led to the papacy in Rome becoming the center of power. First, the church gained unsolicited popularity through the early relationships with the apostles. The office of the pope came from the apostle Peter who Christ gave authority in the church, a prominent leader and appointed as the guide for His people. Pope Damasus I, got the foundation for papacy based on the conversation between Peter and Jesus. Damasus belief in the apostolicRead MoreComparative Essay on Uniformitarianism and Catasophism1386 Words   |  6 PagesThe Rise of Papacy The rise of the papacy came at a time when the Roman Empire collapsed and there was chaos as it related to the bishops who held office in Rome and what religion would be at the forefront of the representation of the west or east of Rome since its demise. The term â€Å"papacy† (papatus), meant to distinguish the Roman bishop’s office from all bishoprics (episcopatus), and The Head of the Roman Catholic Church the pope is considered the successor of Peter and the vicar of Christ

Gender Equality And Women s Rights - 1274 Words

Women in the world still face discrimination and gender equality takes action to achieve women’s rights. AAUW provides and gives women the chance to have an education, while Catalyst reaches out to women to carry out equal pay, equal participation in the workplace, and remove discrimination. UN Women attains to human rights for women. Throughout history women have fought for gender equality in the workplace and in education, and every year organizations like AAUW, Catalyst, and UN Women have gotten closer to balancing equality. Improving education for women and girls continues to stay the goal for AAUW. The article â€Å"Girls’ education and gender equality,† reports that to improve education, women need life skills and women role models to look up to (2). Role models play an important part for young girls because girls need good examples to follow. In addition, well-educated role models will teach girls the importance of learning and why they need it. Ro le models will inspire young girls to focus on education and overcome the obstacles of education. Role models will help young girls accept themselves because role models teach the importance of accepting their life. Having female role models shows the importance of women and what they can achieve in the world. Education provides girls the opportunity to learn life skills for example, life skills will teach girls how to act correctly, in addition life skills will provide young girls how to think and buildShow MoreRelatedWomen s Rights And Gender Equality Essay1506 Words   |  7 Pages All men and women were created equal. However, this obvious truth is not universally shared. Fortunately, there is a very real fight for gender equality that we are currently engaged in, and a participant in that fight that holds a fundamental role are non-governmental organizations (NGOs). NGOs exist as private, voluntary organizations that function without government restriction and bias because they are not for profit and not funded by the government. These organizations coordinate strategiesRead MoreWomen s Rights For Gender Equality1441 Words   |  6 PagesWhatever women do, they must do twice as well as men to be thought half as good. Luckily, this is not difficult (Charlotte Whitton). Women’s rights promote an equality between men and women. Equality between males and females would be both genders being treated equal and fair in all aspects of life. Many people have been fighting for centuries to transform women’s rights. Women’s rights regarding job opportunities, military advancements and pay gaps have transformed over centuries and need to continueRead MoreWomen s Rights And Gender Equality Essay2428 Words   |  10 Pagesmay not even bring anything or anyone significant to mind. But no matter what thoughts arise through them, all three of these words represent an ideology, and two of them commonly have to do with diet. Feminism, or the advoc acy of women’s rights and gender equality, and veganism, or the lifestyle and diet of avoiding animal products, are widely known and decently popular. However, locavorism, which is the lifestyle and diet of purchasing and eating locally and sustainably grown food in order to helpRead MoreWomen s Rights Of Gender Equality And Women1005 Words   |  5 PagesHistorically women have not been provided equal opportunities in competitive and collegiate sports. In the late 1800’s, social perception was that females were weak and although they were admired by men, they were treated like objects (Lumpkin, 2013). Competitive and collegiate sports were dominated by males, with little opportunity for women to participate. Females eagerly wanted to participate, however sports were perceived inappropriate which would put their femininity in question and putRead MoreGender Equality And Its Effects On Women s Rights1962 Words   |  8 Pageshas also caused it to regress. Prior to the occupation of these treacherous groups, Afghanistan had a relatively liberal outlook, with a hopeful progression of women’s rights. More specifically; â€Å"Afghan women made up 50% of government workers, 70% of school teachers, and 40% of doctors in Kabul.† In recent years the public life of women has been completely effaced due to the effects of war and the Taliban regime. They are isolated, confined to their homes and masked with an all-encompassing burqa; prisonersRead MoreGender Equality And The Movement For Women s Rights On A Global Scale1174 Words   |  5 Pagesawareness about gender equality and the movement for women’s rights on a global scale. In fact, there are two controversial perceptions of the meaning of feminism and what feminists stand for. For many years, feminism is considered a series of mere actions exhorting for only women, which is anti-men and overaggressive. Recently, there is a gradual change in the understanding of what feminis m is. It is all about the equality that every living human should be treated regardless of gender, race, religionRead MoreGender Roles : Women s Rights On The Ground Of Political, Social And Economic Equality1531 Words   |  7 Pagesisa loaded term. Defined as the advocacy of woman’s rights on the ground of political, social and economic equality to men, feminism has become a movement for woman to have the same rights and respect as men, but just as racism is still relevant, so is the inequality of woman because of stereotypical gender roles. Woman have alway had their role in history, but those roles are often dictated by men. Historically woman have been shown doing woman s work and are defined in terms of their marital statusRead MoreSummary Of Looking For Alibrandi By Goria Steinem1077 Words   |  5 Pages â€Å"A gender-equal society would be one where the word â€Å"gender† does not exist: where everyone can be themselves. â€Å"said by Goria Steinem. I d isagree with Steinem’s statement in relation to gender equality in contemporary Australia. In this essay, three arguments would be addressed, which directly referred to Melina Marchetta’s 1992 novel, Looking for Alibrandi that enacted a story of a teenage girl who had to face difficulties in the society and fight with the original Australians as she was an illegitimateRead MoreGender Inequality Between Men And Women1255 Words   |  6 PagesHowever feminism maintains that women are treated in an unfair ways. Social gender roles lead to various forms of inequality and disparity between men and women, which in relation to the socio economic, political and cultural ideologies plays a negative role in girls (Asley 2014) .While some societies, defend gender differences based on their cultural norms and religious beliefs, this tends to restrict women physical and mental space.†Across social classes girls tends to have less physical mobilityRead MoreDoes Feminism Creat e Equality?1037 Words   |  5 PagesDoes Feminism Create Equality? Feminism is an umbrella term for people who think there is something wrong with the idea that gender has the capability to limit an individual’s social and political right. Even if there is inequality between men and women, feminism has never been the main reason to give women their civil rights. Feminism started among European activists in the 19th century, when women were not treated equally and were not elected to high positions of power. Indeed, it sought to eliminate

Customer service Chapter 1 and 2 Essay Example For Students

Customer service Chapter 1 and 2 Essay Chapter 1 Review Questions. 1 . Service is the manner in which you and other employees treat your customers and each other as you deliver your companys deliverables. 2. In the past when many people worked on the farms, small artisan and business owner provide customer service to their neighbors. Many small towns and villages had their own blacksmith, general stores, barbershop, and similar service oriented establishments owned and operated by people living in the town. For people living in more rural areas, peddlers of kitchenware, medicine, and other goods made their way from on location to nother location to serve their customers and distributed various products. 3. Businesses have changed dramatically as the economy has shifted from a dependence on manufacturing to a focus on providing timely quality service. The development of international quality standard by which effectiveness is measured in many multinational organizations. Because of the multinational nature of the business, many companies choose to use outsourcing customer service function. 4. Following are some of the causes of the changing business environment in recent decades: Global economic shifts Shifts in the population and labor force Increased efficiency in technology Deregulation of many industries Geopolitical changes Increase in the number of white-collar workers More women are entering the workforce A more racially and ethnically diverse population is entering the workforce More older workers entering the workforce Growth in e-commerce 5. Company culture includes the dynamic nature if the organization and encompasses the values and beliefs that is important to the organization and its employees and manager. The experience, attitudes, and norms cherished and upheld by the employees and teams within the organization set the tone and manner n which service is delivered and how service providers interact with both internal and external customers. 6. During the hiring process, a thorough screening process will be likely used to identify skills, knowledge, and aptitudes. Without motivated, competent worker, any planning, policy, and procedure change or system adaptation will not make a difference in customer service. 7. Quality and quantity are two factors related to an organizations products or deliverables that can lead to customer satisfaction or dissatisfaction. 8. When organization selects a delivery method for roducts and services, organizations examine the following factors. Industry standards Customer expectation Capabilities Costs current ana projected requirements 9. The six key components of a customer service environment are: 1 . The customer 2. Organizational culture 3. Human resources 4. Products/deliverables 5. Delivery systems 6. Service 10. Many organizations are changing to learning organizations, because systems and processes are continuously examined and updated. Learning from mistake, and adapting accordingly, is crucial for organizations success. Search it out Listing of Books on topics introduce in this chapter A Guide to Customer Service Skills for the Service Desk Professional Customer Service and Professionalism: Twenty-five Successful, Professional Women Share Their Powerful Tips for Image, Attitude, and Behavior in the Workplace Customer Service for Professionals in Health Care Customer Tells: Delivering World-Class Customer Service by Reading Your Signs and Signals Invisible Profits: The Power of Exceptional Customer Service Perfect Phrases for Customer Service, Second Edition Sales and Service for the Wine Professional Survival Spanish for Customer Service The Compassionate Geek: Mastering Customer Service for I. T. Professionals Winning the Professional Services Sale Three companies that I believe have adapted a positive customer service 1 . BMW 2. Toyota 3. General Motors Face to Face 1. I think I have people skill; I try to explain the thing in a way they can understand without using technical terms. 2. What are my limitations, when dealing with customer complaints? Will I have access to all the tools I need to do my Job effectively? Will you be available if I have any questions? 3. If a customer ask for a service that PackAll does not provide. Debate - Sports Starts Get Paid To Much (Affirmative) EssaySome strategies for helping promote a positive customer culture are: Explore your organizations vision Help communicate the culture and vision to customer daily Demonstrate ethical behavior Identify and improve your customer skills Become an expert on your organization Demonstrate commitment Partner with customers Work with your customers interest in mind Treat vendors and suppliers as customers Share resources Work with, not against, your customer Provide service follow-up 9. Average organizations can be separated from excellent ones by determining what type of service environment exists: Executives spend time with the customers. Executives spend time talking with frontline service providers. Customer feedback is regularly asked and acted upon. Innovation and creativity are encouraged and rewarded. Benchmarking is done with similar organizations. Technology is widespread, frequently updated, and used effectively. Training is provided to keep employees current on industry trends, organizational issues, skills, and technology. Open communication exists between frontline employees and all levels of managements. Employees are provided with guidelines and empowered to do whatever is necessary to satisfy customer. Partnership with customers and suppliers are common. The status quo is not acceptable. 10. Following are some typical things that customer wants: Personal recognition Courtesy Timely service Professionalism Enthusiastic service Empathy Patience Search it out Provide support and safeguards for Florida Hospital, investigators, research team members, research subjects, and data to ensure integrity of research at Florida Hospital Our mission: to inspire and nurture the human spirit one person, one cup and one neighborhood at a time. Our mission is to fulfill the automotive and commercial truck rental, leasing, car sales and related needs of our customers and, in doing so, exceed their expectations for service, quality and value. The USAA toucatlonal Younaatlon offers you tne opportunlty to De netter InTormea ana repared to make the best choices through every stage of life. Our extensive library of free educational materials provides credible and useful information that speaks to a variety of subjects and provides you with educational information thats objective, relevant and usable EDs mission is to promote student achievement and preparation for global competitiveness by fostering educational excellence and ensuring equal access Yes there are shared values and belief evident in the different mission statements. Customer service Willingness for improvement Provide multiple options As a customer/client, I do feel the organization values me. Because, if customer is not there to buy their product/service, they will not have any reason to do on what they do. Yes, the focus of each types of organization seems to differ between types of organization. Government organizations typically do not put lots of emphasis on customer, because the customer does not have any other option. Non-profit organization seems to focus on wellbeing of target customer. Profit organization, they seems to have attractive mission to promote their product or services. 2. http://blog. spoken. com/2010/10/cost-of-acquiring-a-new-customer-6-to-7-times- more-than-keeping-exisiting. ml http://iterativepath. wordpress. com/2013/02/03/it- costs-6-7-times-more-to-acquire-new-customers-over-retaining-existing-ones/ Face to face 1 . Yes there are indicators of United Booksellers services culture. They provide extensive customer service training before being allowed to interact with customers. They care about customer satisfaction 2. I would follow organization s server culture to provide the service customer was getting before and suggest the need of improvement if there is any. 3. I would expect the service they are known for. Because that is why I am there as a customer.

Competitive Advantage Social Responsibility -Myassignmenthelp.Com

Question: Discuss About The Competitive Advantage Social Responsibility? Answer: Introduction Strategy refers to the long term plan of the organization whereby it aims to grow and become one of the best companies in the given industry. An organization`s survival without a strategy is nearly impossible because the strategy provides an aim to the organization and serves as a guiding path for development (Hill, Jones and Schilling 2014). The given post includes an analysis of a company who has adopted a long term strategic intent and an example of the company who has not adopted one. It will be analyzing the strategic implication of the analysis and speculate the consequences of the same for Microsoft and JC Penney. Strategic Intent of Microsoft As stated earlier the strategic intent of a company helps in identifying the specific target of the firm and also helps to set the direction of the firm as to where it wants to go in the future. Without specific strategy intent a firm will not be able to survive for long. The strategic intent of Microsoft is very systematic. They aim to become one of the strongest brands in the globe and enrich the experience and goals of both the employees as well as the organization. According to Agnihotri (2013), Microsoft is well aware of the connection between employee goal achievements and organization goal achievement. The primary intent of the company is to harmonize the needs of both the company and the employees in a manner that is unique and beneficial for both. It plans to achieve this by taking out new policies, introducing new updates and products along with creating new programs for the existing employees. The strategic intent of the company will go a long way in defining its future plans and direction. As Microsoft has made it quite clear that it aims to enrich the benefits of both workers and the company, this will be serving as guidance in their future endeavors. The management of the company will be keeping in mind the intent before taking any decisions. Having a strategic intent will hence, have a good effect on the companies: Future product developments Employee performance Global position The company is an American departmental store chain with a large number of locations in the country. Strategic Intent of JC Penney The company is one of the worst performing countries in the history of departmental stores. The given company does not have a strategic intent and aims to go with the flow. This laid back attitude of the company has caused it a huge amount of loss and there has been a drop of 32% in the sales of the company. According to Hamel and Prahalad (2005), there exists a strategic drop back in this drop and its not just related to general operations. The company management does not have a proper strategic plan or intention to become more successful. Without aiming to get somewhere it has just opened new stores and not concentrated on improving the existing stores. The existing stores are quite bland. Due to this lack of a goal in the form of intent, the company has resulted in huge losses and succumbed to competition from competitors. In future, it will not be able to survive amidst the changing business environment without a strategic intent (Porter and Kramer 2006). Conclusion Therefore, it can be stated that Strategy forms an essential part of an organization and that the organizations tend to get a sense of direction from a strategy. The organizations with a well defined strategic intent tend to prosper and do well in the complex business environment whereas the companies like JC Penney who do not have a strategic intent, tend to falter in corporate era. References Agnihotri, A., 2013. Doing good and doing business at the bottom of the pyramid.Business Horizons,56(5), pp.591-599. Hamel, G., and C. K. Prahalad, 2005. Strategic Intent, Harvard Business Review, 83 (7/8) pp.148161. Hill, C.W., Jones, G.R. and Schilling, M.A., 2014.Strategic management: theory: an integrated approach. Cengage Learning. Porter, M., and M. Kramer, 2006. Strategy and Society: The Link between Competitive Advantage and Corporate Social Responsibility. Harvard Business Review, 84 (12) pp.7892.

Natural Monopolies Price Regulation-Free-Samples for Students

Questions: Explain how and why Governments may want to regulate the Price setting of a Natural Monopoly. Answers: Introduction There are different types of market structures; perfect competition, monopolistic competition, oligopolies and monopoly markets. It is argued by most economists that competition is present in the perfect competitive markets because the number of sellers are many, small in size and price takers. However, when we consider the case for monopolies, this is a market whose supplier is a sole supplier who is large in size. There is no competition in the monopoly markets and the sole supplier is the price maker. The government is always against the presence of oligopoly and monopoly markets since they are inefficient in price and outputs. The role is promoting competition in an economy by the government is achieved through monopoly pricing regulation. Being driven by the objective of maximizing profits, monopoly markets produced less output than would be for a competitive case and then sell this at a high price. The goods produced by the monopolies allow for the higher price charges since there are no close substitutes; the consumers have no other option than to accept the price offered no matter how high it becomes (Textbook Equity Edition, 2014). The natural monopoly is a special kind of monopoly existing due to the presence of high startup costs and fixed costs. Hillman (2007) noted that all pure public goods fall under a natural monopoly and it shall be seen on the analysis that its more efficient to supply pure public goods through a natural monopoly than by duplication (Economicsonline.co.uk (2017). There are two important theories that explains price regulation for a natural monopolist. These are the Average cost pricing and the marginal cost pricing (Greer, 2012). The first one is the pricing made on the basis of average c ost while the other one is the pricing made on the basis of marginal cost whether regulated or unregulated. It is expected that the natural monopolies should be maintained in the economy for some goods to be provided at a lower price. Analysis A pure public good like water is best supplied by the natural monopoly because the production costs associated to the supply falls as the number of users increase. These natural monopolies have increased economies of scale (Linfo.org, 2006). Duplication would lower the economies of scale and the competitors would fight for prices which would make the prices charged to be higher (Textbook Equity Edition, 2014). Natural monopolies are present in the case of electricity distribution. The production of electricity is not such expensive and can be done by many investors. However, the infrastructure used to get the electricity to the final users is very expensive. There are many examples of natural monopolies like the water distribution and the postal services. According to Hu?tcher (2011), the pressure on pricing on natural monopolies is very high which makes it difficult for competitors to survive in this market. According to Regulationbodyofknowledge.org (2017), natural monopolies have market powers and when a business recognizes that it falls under a natural monopoly, it limits its output level and raises its prices; the prices are set above the marginal cost. This unlike in the competitive markets results in a reduced social welfare (Tutor2u, 2017). Since most of the times the commodities offered by a natural monopolists are basic goods, such as water, electricity and communication, people cannot avoid their consumption even if prices were raised. Social welfare is lost in that the extra income used could be used in the demand for some other goods or services. The role of the government therefore is to make sure that such prices are not charged and that the monopolists charge fair prices. However, scale economies prevents this marginal cost pricing from being the optimal choice (Mankiw, 2011). The price for a natural monopoly is set by the government at the best-price for a single product; it is set equal to the marginal cost (MC) of production. Hu?tcher noted that the setting of the price by the government is with an aim of ensuring that the social welfare is maximized. However, the first-best price which is equal to MC will not apply in all the cases; sometimes the fixed costs may be higher compared to the variable costs. This would mean that Average cost (AC) would exceed the marginal production cost. For this reason, the government is forced to set the second-best price at a level higher than the first-best price, at the point where it is equal to the AC. Many natural monopolies produce many goods and services and these are priced differently. This creates a challenge for the AC to be the optimal basis for pricing; the challenge is on determining the optimal combination that would result in the lowest dead weight loss. There therefore has to be another optimal basis fo r pricing. This bring about the idea of Ramsey pricing. Ramsey noted that the reason by the government regulate natural monopoly prices is to prevent the consumers from suffering from the high monopoly prices. His idea therefore was to maximize social surplus by reducing the prices for the monopolys unique goods. Fig: Dead weight loss for unregulated Monopoly Source: Faculty.winthrop.edu (2017) The graph shows that unregulated monopolistic strategy of producing at MR = MC is resulting in a high level of deadweight loss equal to the shaded region. This is interpreted to a reduced consumer surplus and an increased producer surplus. However, deadweight loss cannot be avoided in the case for natural monopolies since the consumers are charged a price higher than the competitive price would be. The governments interest is to ensure that the smallest dead weight loss is incurred. QUN is the quantity produced from free operation, QOPT is the maximum (optimal) output that could be produced at the competitive level. Fig: Pricing options for a natural monopoly The competitive level of production is 14 units and at a price of $4; this is at the intersection of demand and the MC; this is if the natural monopoly is regulated to produce at this point. At this point, the AC can be observed to be very high and the monopoly could only make losses. The maximization of profit level for a natural monopolist is at 6 units at a price of $10; this is at the intersection of the MR and the MC; then where this solution level cuts the demand curve; this happens if the natural monopolist is left alone without any regulation (Haworth, 2017). At this point, it is also observed that the AC is below the price charged. So this natural monopoly is making abnormal profit. The breakeven point for a natural monopoly is thus at producing 10 units and selling at a price of $8; this happens if regulated to produce at a price equal to the AC. This is the point where the social surplus is maximized and the price charged is lower than what would otherwise be offered by th e unregulated monopoly; the output level is also higher (Welker, 2013). Thus at this level, the resources are allocated efficiently. The reason for regulation is observed from the graph; lets assume that the regulators allowed the division of the market into two such that each firm produces 3 units, at 3 units, the AC of production rises and thus the price for the goods rise to $11. The natural monopoly is producing at a lower AC than it would be the case for many suppliers. The price charged should be regulated to be on maximum equal to the average cost. Any price below the Ac even if the regulators push for it is not achievable unless the regulators could offer subsidies for the losses to be incurred. The subsidies help in ensuring that even after selling at the lower price below the AC, the supplier is able to break even. There is no way a regulator with an aim of improving social surplus can push for the price to be above the AC; therefore all prices above the AC are not possible unless the supplier was let to operate with no regulation. Under regulation by the government, the quantity produced is higher than for the unregulated monopoly and lower than for the competitive market. One of the solution proposed by many economies on resolving the problem of pricing the natural monopolies is to ensure that all the private natural monopolies transfer their ownership to the government. This could improve efficiency as the losses the government makes will be catered for in its budget. This would help in skipping all the pricing challenges for natural monopolies. The other solution is fragmenting the markets and then allowing for marginal costing. This is the realization of the fact that consumers ability to pay are different. Price discrimination would ensure that lower prices are charged in the markets for low income consumer brackets with no profit interest; the compensation for this is achieved by charging higher prices in the markets for high income bracket consumers. Through this, the government goal of improving social surplus is achieved. The government need to ensure that there is sufficient supply of the good produced by the natural monopoly. This is why the government do not allow these firms to charge a price equal to marginal cost since losses would put these firms to a risk of closing down. For a single-product monopolist, average pricing is the best regulation strategy as it ensures a breakeven point for the natural monopolist in addition to improving the consumer surplus. Conclusion The government has to consider all the production costs in setting their prices for a natural monopoly. The first-best price is not always the best price for a natural monopoly as it could lead to the natural monopoly making losses if the variable cost is small and a very high fixed cost. The average cost is the cost that determines the breakeven point of a natural monopoly; at the price where the price is equal to the average cost. There should be no natural monopoly that could be making losses. Social welfare is maximized at the price which is equal to the marginal cost. Since the natural monopoly is not able to break even at this price, the government should subsidize the difference between average cost and marginal cost for the price equal to the marginal cost to make the monopoly breakeven and at the same time maximize social welfare. It is difficult for the government to determine the true AC for a natural monopoly and thus misinformed decisions may be made by the government since these supplier report more than the true value of AC so as to be allowed to sell at a higher price and gain some profit. This can be resolved by introducing a proper strategy of estimating such costs by the government. Otherwise the goal of maximizing social welfare cannot be reached. The natural monopolists are only expected to make normal profits at the price that is equal to AC. It can therefore be concluded that there is no possibility for a natural monopolist to be left to operate freely and thus the regulators are important in restricting their prices References Economicsonline.co.uk. (2017). Natural monopolies exist when one firm dominates an industry. Economicsonline.co.uk. Retrieved 27 August 2017, from https://www.economicsonline.co.uk/Business_economics/Natural_monopolies.html. Faculty.winthrop.edu. (2017). Natural Monopoly. Faculty.winthrop.edu. Retrieved 27 August 2017, from https://www.google.com/url?sa=trct=jq=esrc=ssource=webcd=2cad=rjauact=8ved=0ahUKEwiEzs-dmvrVAhUsJMAKHUXuB9cQFggvMAEurl=http%3A%2F%2Ffaculty.winthrop.edu%2Fpantuoscol%2Fecon.215%2Fnatural%2520monopoly%2520slides.pptusg=AFQjCNHlaQFV0ul04cHGqNV4GzqkSXT2ew. Greer, M. (2012). Electricity marginal cost pricing: Applications in eliciting demand responses. Waltham, MA: Butterworth-Heinemann. Haworth, B. (2017). Natural Monopolies and Pricing Policy. Econpage.com. Retrieved 27 August 2017, from https://econpage.com/201/handouts/natmonop.html. Hillman, A. L. (2007). Public finance and public policy: Responsibilities and limitations of government. New York, NY [u.a.: Cambridge Univ. Press. Hu?tcher, P. (2011). Theory of Natural Monopoly: Ramsay Pricing and Loeb-Magat Proposal. Investopedia.com. (2017). Franchised Monopoly. Investopedia. Retrieved 27 August 2017, from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/franchised-monopoly.asp. Linfo.org. (2006). Natural Monopoly Definition. Linfo.org. Retrieved 27 August 2017, from https://www.linfo.org/natural_monopoly.html. Mankiw, N. G. (2011). Principles of economics. Mason, Ohio: Thomson South-Western. Regulationbodyofknowledge.org. (2017). Deviations from Marginal Cost Pricing: Ramsey Pricing. Regulationbodyofknowledge.org. Retrieved 27 August 2017, from https://regulationbodyofknowledge.org/tariff-design/economics-of-tariff-design/ramsey-pricing/. Textbook Equity Edition. (2014). Principles of Economics Volume 1 of 2. [S.l.]: Lulu com. Tutor2u. (2017). Explaining Natural Monopoly. Tutor2u. Retrieved 28 August 2017, from https://www.tutor2u.net/economics/reference/natural-monopoly. Welker, J. (2013). Monopoly prices to regulate or not to regulate, that is the question! Economics in Plain English. Retrieved 28 August 2017, from https://welkerswikinomics.com/blog/2013/03/04/monopoly-prices-to-regulate-or-not-to-regulate-that-is-the-question/

Santa Ana Winds and El Nino Essay Example

Santa Ana Winds and El Nino Paper The Santa Ana winds develop from an atmospheric pressure pattern, usually over the southwestern parts of the United States. Low pressure becomes lower off the coast as high pressure builds up over the intermountain areas to the east of southern California. The wind then blows in a circular motion, around the high pressure and moves toward the low pressure out toward the west. This sudden drop in pressure causes the temperature to rise because of the increase in pressure with the drop. The air becomes much drier as the air warms up and this is because there is no moisture in the air at the time. Strong winds having an easterly direction can form, depending on the gradient of pressure between the high pressure center and low pressure off the coast. One hundred mile winds that are hot and wet have been reported, in some instances. We will write a custom essay sample on Santa Ana Winds and El Nino specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now We will write a custom essay sample on Santa Ana Winds and El Nino specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer We will write a custom essay sample on Santa Ana Winds and El Nino specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer The Santa Ana winds are a type of Chinook wind that blows in many areas of the world that are close to mountains, and August is usually the month when these winds begin blowing, because of the elevated pressure system forms over the Pacific Northwest and over Mexico, where the low pressure forms. This north and south pressure variation builds winds that are strong and causes them to spill over the Sierra Nevada Mountains from the direction of the northeast. This air falls from the mountains and compresses, and this causes it to warm up and decrease in relative humidity. The air is already mostly dry because it’s in the desert, and this warming creates very low relative humidity. Large amounts of evaporation and vegetative transpiration from the Santa Ana can cause the soil to become extremely dry and there becomes a higher risk of fires in the state of California. State senior editor, Andy Bowers (Bowers, 2003) explains the California weather phenomenon known as Santa Ana winds. â€Å"It’s what’s been stoking the fires in the region.† We learn from Universe Today, (Universe Today, 2004) that â€Å"the Santa Ana winds, which blow across Southern California, are known to cause dry, fire-hazard conditions inland. New data gathered by NASA’s Quikscat satellite and its sea winds instrument shows that these same winds can help stimulate the marine environment. The strong winds blow from the land out to the ocean, bringing nutrients to the surface. Quikscat was able to measure these winds. These Santa Ana winds blow treacherously each year, while they cause cold water to rise from the ocean which brings many nutrients that benefit fisheries. The same article reveals the satellite observations of the Santa Ana winds effects on the ocean, during three windy days in February 2003, and according to these findings, â€Å"Quickscat was able to identify the fine features of the coastal Santa Ana wind jets. It identified location, strength and extent, which other weather prediction products lack the resolution in consistently to show, and marooned ocean buoys lack sufficient coverage to fully represent.† El Nino is an oscillation of the ocean-atmosphere system that is located in the tropical Pacific which ultimately affects the weather across the world. Increased rainfall across the southern edge of the United States and Peru is due to the consequences of El Nino and has caused flooding, droughts in the West Pacific that sometimes causes brushfires in Australia. It is extremely important to observe the weather conditions in the tropical Pacific. This area being closely monitored is crucial in predicting climatic changes for short time spans of up to a year of weather predictions. NOAA, in providing essential information, operates a system of buoys for measuring temperatures, winds and currents near the equator. Daily transmission of information is sent from these buoys and is accessible to scientists and researchers, who predict the weather conditions. When El Nino conditions are normal, the trade winds blow in the direction of the west and across the tropical Pacific and these winds add up surface water that is warm in the west Pacific and the surface of the ocean is close to one half of a meter higher in Indonesia than it is at Ecuador. During El Nino, normal, local weather patterns are changed. This disruption causes the trade winds to weaken and reduces the upswelling of cool waters in the eastern Pacific and it allows the pool of warmer water in the west to move eastward and toward South America. The Eastern Pacific and Central atmospheric pressure gradients lose strength close to the equator, which causes these trade winds to weaken. The ocean water temperature, near the surface is close to 8 degrees Celsius, higher in the west, while colder temperatures are reported off the coast of South America and this is due to the upwelling of cooler water which comes from the deeper levels in the ocean. The cold water is very rich in nutrients and supports higher amounts of productivity for various marine ecosystems and fisheries. Fisherman have been noticing the effects of El Nino for many years. During the months of December and January, they noticed that the ocean current was much warmer and they also saw that this occurred every year, during the same period of time, which caused the amount of fish in the water to decrease. Rainfall is discovered in the rising air that is over the warmest water and the east Pacific is mostly dry. Fishermen were the first to name the weather condition, â€Å"El Nino† which stands for â€Å"little boyâ€Å". They offered this name because El Nino showed up every year at the same time, close to Christmas. During El Nino, the trade winds grow calm in the western and central Pacific and leads to a depression of the thermo cline toward and in the west. At one time, El Nino was thought to have only affected areas in Peru, but later it was obvious that El Nino had a much broader range than anyone had ever suspected. The El Nino Southern Oscillation intensifies during different time periods, where many weather patterns are changed to great degrees and sometimes causes damage to many regions in the world. Meteorologists depend on NOAA, which is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, because it has the responsibility of providing weather forecasts to the nation. These predictions can better enable people in areas around the nation to be equipped in preparing for dangerous weather conditions which can greatly affect their region. These weather conditions can range from droughts to severe storms across the world.

Cuban Missle Crisis Essays - CubaUnited States Relations

Cuban Missle Crisis The Cuban Missile Crisis was the closest the world ever came to nuclear war. The United States armed forces were at their highest state of readiness ever and Soviet field commanders in Cuba were prepared to use battlefield nuclear weapons to defend the island if it was invaded. Luckily, thanks to the bravery of two men, President John F. Kennedy and Premier Nikita Khrushchev, war was averted. In 1962, the Soviet Union was desperately behind the United States in the arms race. Soviet missiles were only powerful enough to be launched against Europe but U.S. missiles were capable of striking the entire Soviet Union. In late April 1962, Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev conceived the idea of placing intermediate-range missiles in Cuba. A deployment in Cuba would double the Soviet strategic arsenal and provide a real deterrent to a potential U.S. attack against the Soviet Union. Meanwhile, Fidel Castro was looking for a way to defend his island nation from an attack by the U.S. Ever since the failed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961, Castro felt a second attack was inevitable. Consequently, he approved of Khrushchev's plan to place missiles on the island. In the summer of 1962 the Soviet Union worked quickly and secretly to build its missile installations in Cuba. For the United States, the crisis began on October 15, 1962 whenreconnaissance photographs revealed Soviet missiles under construction in Cuba. Early the next day, President John Kennedy was informed of the missile installations. Kennedy immediately organized the EX-COMM, a group of his twelve most important advisors to handle the crisis. After seven days of guarded and intense debate within the upper echelons of government, Kennedy concluded to impose a naval quarantine around Cuba. He wished to prevent the arrival of more Soviet offensive weapons on the island. On October 22, Kennedy announced the discovery of the missile installations to the public and his decision to quarantine the island. He also proclaimed that any nuclear missile launched from Cuba would be regarded as an attack on the United States by the Soviet Union and demanded that the Soviets remove all of their offensive weapons from Cuba. During the public phase of the Crisis, tensions began to build on both sides. Kennedy eventually ordered low-level reconnaissance missions once every two hours. On the 25th Kennedy pulled the quarantine line back and raised military readiness to DEFCON 2. Then on the 26th EX-COMM heard from Khrushchev in an impassioned letter. He proposed removing Soviet missiles and personnel if the U.S. would guarantee not to invade Cuba. October 27 was the worst day of the crisis. A U-2 was shot down over Cuba and EX-COMM received a second letter from Khrushchev demanding the removal of U.S. missiles in Turkey in exchange for Soviet missiles in Cuba. Attorney General Robert Kennedy suggested ignoring the second letter and contacted Soviet Ambassador Anatoly Dobrynin to tell him of the U.S. agreement with the first. Tensions finally began to ease on October 28 when Khrushchev announced that he would dismantle the installations and return the missiles to the Soviet Union, expressing his trust that the United States would not invade Cuba. Further negotiations were held to implement the October 28 agreement, including a United States demand that Soviet light bombers be removed from Cuba, and specifying the exact form and conditions of United States assurances not to invade Cuba. Bibliography world book encyclopedia- 2000, New York, eletronic encyclopedia History Reports

Living on your own

Living on your own Free Online Research Papers As an adolescent growing up, I learned part of becoming a mature adult is learning how to be self independent. For example, one way to experience self independency is when you attend college away from home and you no longer have the guidance you did in high school. In college, you are no longer in the confinement of your parents’ rules or boundaries. For instance, when you lived at home and your parents might have repeatedly told you to come home by a certain time when you went out: when in college you can come and leave as you please without paying any consequences. Also, while living on a school campus, it is more convenient to get to your classes because you do not have to travel via bus or mass transit to get school to attend your classes. However, while living at home and going to college, commuting will take some time and may cause you to be late or absent for some of your classes. Living at home with your parents can also benefit you financially while going to college. At home, you maybe fortunate to have home cooked meals and your room is already provided for. While living on a college campus, you must pay for a dorm room which is in most cases costly. In addition, the cost of meals on campus in comparison to home is also much more expensive. Also, when living at home as a college freshman, your parents usually provide you with basic necessities on a daily basis and you do not have to pay for it. While this maybe true, when attending college you have the support of those at home but you are required to be more independent as you do not have the ones at home immediately available to provide for you. In conclusion, if you want to become a mature independent adult, you must first learn how to live on your own. College is the perfect experience to test your maturity. Research Papers on Living on your ownPersonal Experience with Teen PregnancyNever Been Kicked Out of a Place This NiceHip-Hop is ArtStandardized Testing19 Century Society: A Deeply Divided EraLifes What IfsThe Effects of Illegal ImmigrationThe Masque of the Red Death Room meaningsHarry Potter and the Deathly Hallows EssayTwilight of the UAW

Definitions and Examples of Copular Verbs

Definitions and Examples of Copular Verbs In English grammar, a copula is a  verb that joins the subject of a sentence  or clause to a subject complement. For example, the word  is  functions as a copula in the sentences Jane  is my friend and Jane is friendly. Adjective: copular. Pronunciation: KOP-u-la. Also known as a copular verb or a linking verb. Contrast with a  lexical verb and a  dynamic verb. The primary verb be is sometimes referred to as the copula. However, while forms of  being  (am, are, is, was, were) are the most commonly used copulas in English, certain other verbs (identified below) have copular functions as well.   Unlike auxiliary verbs (also called helping verbs), which are used in front of other verbs, copular verbs function by themselves in the manner of main verbs. See Examples and Observations below. Also, see: Ascriptive SentenceDouble CopulaLinking VerbStative VerbVerb of BeingZero Copula Etymology From the Latin, link Examples and Observations These two very old people are the father and mother of Mr. Bucket. Their names are Grandpa Joe and Grandma Josephine.(Roald Dahl, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, 1964)The weather is horrible.That car looks fast.The stew smells good.I do feel a fool.She became a racehorse trainer.Its getting late.He spoke intelligently. (Intelligently is an adverb. It tells you about how the person spoke.)He looks intelligent. (Intelligent is an adjective in a predicative position. It tells you about the person himselfrather like saying He is intelligent. The look is a copular verb.)Common CopulasWe use a special kind of verb to join an adjective or noun complement to a subject. These verbs can be called copulas or copular verbs. Common copular verbs are: be, seem, appear, look, sound, smell, taste, feel, become, get.After copular verbs, we use adjectives, not adverbs. Compare: Note that some of these verbs are also used with other meanings as ordinary non-copular verbs.(Michael Swan, Practical Eng lish Usage. Oxford University Press, 1995)A copular (or linking) verb is complemented by a subject predicative in a sentence or clause structure. The most common copular verb is; others include become (my friend), feel (tired), get (ready), seem (happy). A copular prepositional verb is a prepositional verb (combination of a verb plus preposition) that is complemented by a subject predicative: sound like (you), turn into (a monster), serve as (mitigating circumstances).(Sidney Greenbaum, Oxford English Grammar. Oxford University Press, 1996) Describing some kind of state that the thing or person referred to by the subject is in; verbs of this sort include be, remain, seem and appear.Describing the result of some change affecting the thing or person referred to by the subject; verbs of this sort include become, turn, grow and get.Two Main Groups of CopulasCopular verbs fall into two broad groups: Copular verbs can occur in both main and subordinate clauses.James R. Hurford, Grammar: A Students Guide. Cambridge University Press, 1994

Kiss Anyone, Just Not the Gunners Daughter

Kiss Anyone, Just Not the Gunners Daughter Kiss Anyone, Just Not the Gunners Daughter Kiss Anyone, Just Not the Gunners Daughter By Kate Evans A kiss is just a pleasant reminder that two heads are better than one. Unknown Kissing is a very ancient and widely spread means of greeting and showing affection. Kissing conjures up sweet images of romantic embraces or familial love. One imagines kissing a loved one, a child, a family member. Yet apparently, according to these often forgotten, helpful phrases, kissing a book, some dust, or even the foot of a small woodland creature can have a much deeper meaning. For example, a kiss-behind-the-garden-gate is a country name for a pansy. If you kiss the place to make it well, you are referring to the old custom of sucking the poison out of a wound. If you are kissing the dust, you are completely overwhelmed or humiliated. While kissing hands seems fairly straight forward, it harkens back to the tradition of kissing the hand of a sovereign or a saints statue. If the statue was placed too high to kiss directly, people would kiss their own hands and wave it in towards the saint. On a less romantic note, kissing the gunners daughter meant being flogged aboard a ship. Soldiers who were to be flogged were tied to the cannons breech. While there is perhaps less flogging going on these days, the phrase can still refer to a stiff punishment. And finally, if you kiss a hares foot then you are late. You have missed your appointment and the hare hopped by, leaving its footprint for you to see. While one should perhaps steer away from getting flogged, these other colloquialisms might just come in handy. Want to improve your English in five minutes a day? Get a subscription and start receiving our writing tips and exercises daily! Keep learning! Browse the Expressions category, check our popular posts, or choose a related post below:Writing a Reference Letter (With Examples)8 Proofreading Tips And Techniques20 Ways to Cry

Arizona Law Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

Arizona Law - Essay Example I shall use general information about the law and its open discussions as culled from various magazines, newspapers, and journals online in order to help persuade the reader to rethink their position should they be in full support of the law. After all, every law is subject to political discussion. Those who support the controversial law do so on the basis that the senators and other politicians in Washington are incapable of passing effective anti-immigration laws. That is why the state of Arizona has chosen to enforce its own version of an anti-immigration law. After all, who better to know the effects of illegal immigration into their state than the state politicians? They are familiar with the immigration problem of their state and therefore, should be the most authoritative when it comes to finding methods of keeping these illegal immigrants out of the country. Let us not forget the most important aspect of anti-immigration law enforcement, it must be based upon a law that was p assed by consensus on a national level over at the Capitol. The enforcement of the nitty gritty points of the law is the responsibility of those deputized by the national senate. The budget for anti-immigration law enforcement is also worked into the country's budget every year. But under the Arizona anti-immigration law, the budget for enforcing the law as stated in SB 1070 should come from the federal government. Under no circumstances should the enactment of such laws be done under the supervision and authority of the state under a localized anti-immigration law. (Navarette Jr., Ruben â€Å"The Truth About Arizona's Anti-immigration Law†) If Arizona is allowed to breakaway from the law as defined by Washington, then all the other states must be given the same freedom to enforce their anti-immigration laws. There is also the local and national economic and agricultural aspect to consider at the moment while the law is in effect. Although it is true that Washington has a har d time coming up with a cohesive anti-immigration plan that both sides of the political spectrum can get aboard on, they have to first consider the local economy and workforce of the state before passing such laws. These state legislators seem to have forgotten that the reason that illegal immigrants proliferate in the state is because there are jobs to be had. Jobs that our fellow Americans frown upon or refuse to do under the scorching heat of the sun. (Kain, Erick â€Å"Why Arizona's Controversial Immigration Law is Bad for Business†) Without these illegal immigrants to do the job without complain, is there anyone else who would willingly come forward to do those menial jobs? Let's face it, only the migrant workers who work illegally in the country would be willing to do those jobs in exchange for far less than they should actually be paid One of the key points that is being addressed as an explosive issue when it comes to the enforcement of this bill is that certain secto rs of society believe that the law will encourage racial profiling. The belief stems from the fact that the law is far too broad and open to interpretation that those enforcing it will not have any qualms about asking for citizenship identification papers because he is exposed to various races every â€Å"single day of his working life. It is believed that SB 1070, in its original content may : ...unlawfully

Criminal Justice Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words - 8

Criminal Justice - Essay Example 1) Thus, criminal facility as well as study on crime is important to bring reduction to the crime rate. The evolution of prison is not known yet but the word prison is a Latin word meaning â€Å"to seize†. Prisons of ancient times were different than that of today. Those prisons were for a short period of time and included harsh punishments. (Albanese & Dammer, 2010) Today, the concept of prison has changed to correctional facility. The main purpose of a correction facility is to bring a change in the personality of the prisoners. As once they complete their jail time period they must come out they should live as a civilized citizen not as a criminal. A modern correctional facility should fulfill this requirement. According to me the punishment period should be more of a realization period of one’s bad deeds. A prison should not be jail but an institution. Although there are serious offenders of crime, they should b kept in separate floors and must be treated physiologically as well to overcome their state of mind. The building of a facility must be vast and spacious. A rectangular building with concrete as building component of the facility, as it is durable and secure. For security reason the number of guards must me double than that of inmates, to help in emergency situations. It must have sports and recreational activities for the inm ates. One cell should accommodate two inmates. All inmates must be in black and white striped jumpsuits, wearing their identity cards all the time to ensure their identity. Along with all this a good administration is also necessary for a proper working of a correctional facility. Keeping in mind the rights and needs of inmates, strict policies and practices should be avoided to alleviate the conditions of a prison. Jones, M., & johnsons, P. (2011).  History of crime justice. (5th ed., p. 1). Elsevier. Retrieved from

Hw Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Hw - Assignment Example Growth in a company creates an important, enthusiastic corporation where individuals see genuine opportunity. At the same time, the management must be careful not to solely make growth its main objective but rather should focus on profitable growth. The main responsibility of marketing is to achieve profitable growth for the company. Marketing must recognize, evaluate and select market opportunities and strategize on how to achieve things. Product-market expansion grid is one of the devices for identifying growth opportunities. There are four strategies one for each and every quadrant in the grid (Yim Hee: 76). The grid has two dimensions which are product and market dimensions. Four growth strategies can be formed from these two dimensions. They include: This is a risky strategy this is because there is inadequate scope for utilizing current expertise or realizing economies of scale especially when you are trying to sell entirely different services or products to different customers. Its main strength is that one business is unlikely to be affected incase one business suffer from adverse circumstances (Yim Hee:

Different Approaches to The Ways That Gender Affects Language Use Essay

Different Approaches to The Ways That Gender Affects Language Use - Essay Example This research will begin with the statement that Ã' ommunication is a significant in the daily life of an individual. It is important that information is relayed within the shortest time possible and is as precise as possible. However, distortions can often occur, mainly due to differences in culture and gender. The gender difference is a factor that affects communication to a significant degree. It is common knowledge that men and women communicate differently. Whereas men are not so open to their conversation, women are generally talkative and will express their feelings through various ways including crying, laughing or just through various body languages. However, these factors cannot resonate across all populations. Several authors on the topic suggest that factors such as family backgrounds, the schools attended, early childhood life, and exposure can always predispose an individual to communicate or react differently. Today, most people accept the fact that gender affects how people communicate; women and men communicate in different ways. The differences can pose interpersonal interaction challenges, therefore, leading to resentment, intolerance, decreased productivity and stress. Women and men are said to belong to two cultures mainly due to their differences in sex and early childhood tendencies to the group as boys and girls. This tendency is not only critical in the business setting, but in everyday life. It is, therefore, important that the differences are understood so that communication can be as effective as possible, irrespective of gender.

What are the key differences between human speech and other animal Essay

What are the key differences between human speech and other animal vocal communication systems - Essay Example The approaches to observing and studying animal vocal communication have been changed in methodology. The studies of animal vocal communication have often gone from an informational approach to one attempting to understand an evolutionary process of animal vocal communication. In 1987, researchers of animal vocal communication collaborated and researched concerning theories that encompass concepts of animal vocal communication. The Game Theory, an analysis of the animal vocal communication studies, includes data and descriptions that analyze the frequency dependence of animal vocal communications in a given or observed setting. The Game Theory reveals or delves into the data research that an animal’s behavior – including their vocal communication systems – depends upon the frequency in which the animal appears and/or is present within the animal’s setting, environment or population. The Game Theory which includes how often or the frequency in which the voc al or sound systems of the animal are heard within their population or environment, also deals with topics of adaptations of the specific animal species and the vocal structures of the specific animal species. Animal vocal communication systems include that of the following species: Fish, Turtles, Bird species -- Sparrows -- Humming birds -- Morning doves -- Mocking birds -- Stellar blue jay.Human Vocal Communication Systems Language of humans is entirely different from that of other animal communication. The difference lies in the distinct properties of human language – the linguistics – which makes it different from any other non-human animal communication. The human language, from which dialogue and discourse, our meaningful conversations are formulated, has alphabets which help humans â€Å"to write down language and preserve ideas for coming generations. Animal vocal communication is context or environment bound. Non-human species can not communicate any experien ce of past†¦ non-human species communication is biologically transmitted, thus it can not learn any other languages†. (Johnson 3). A significant difference between human and non-human species of animals is often the interconnections between human linguistics and basis of knowledge and learning. A bird, for example, may somehow imitate human utterances; however the bird is reiterating the words without any grasp of meaning, knowledge or purpose of learning more words. With bird species, learning of words gets erased. Human beings have the unique linguistic skills of creating or constructing sounds into a form of communication that enables the human species to respond in certain ways. The communication-response systems and mechanisms of the human animal is one that is vital to the species. Differences Between Human and Animal Vocal Communication â€Å"Language is an invaluable possession of human race. Man (the human species) is clearly distinguished from other species by the capacity of using language† (Johnson 1). Human beings have an organized system of languages, linguistics, that exist and are practiced around the world. As seen with non-human animals, vocal communication methods are not organized or planned. According to linguistics researcher, Jose Johnson (2012), â€Å"†¦human language is entirely different, biologically and culturally†. The Human Language It is the human language and the development of human language that is recognized as the most effective method of human communication. The terminology, â€Å"language†, is derived from the Latin word lingua, meaning tongue. Human language is an organized form or method of communication that is often used to construct meaningful and purposeful response networks that help in the significant development of human culture. â€Å"Human language is an open entity, new words or meanings may often emerge or come into use as a result of

Criticism on the Novel Essay Example for Free

Criticism on the Novel Essay Nature setting are explicit Page 30: When I was about fifteen years old we had retired to our house near Belrive, when we witnessed a most violent and terrible thunderstorm. It advanced from behind the mountains of Jura, and the thunder burst at once with frightful loudness from various quarters of the heavens. I remained with curiosity and delight. As I stood at the door, on a beautiful oak which stood about twenty yards from our house; and so soon as the dazzling light vanished, the oak had disappeared, and nothing remained but a blasted stump. [] It was not splintered from the shock, but entirely reduced to thin ribbons of wood. Foreshadowing?: power of electricity sparks his attention, if it can destroy something so quickly, why cant it bring dead flesh to life? Scientific descriptions lack important information Page 48: It was already one in the morning; the rain pattered dismally against the panes, and my candle was nearly burnt out, when, by the glimmer of the half-extinguished light, I saw the dull yellow eye of the creature open; it breathed hard, and a convulsive motion agitated its limbs. We see how she was a poet in this quote: she gives more descriptions of the surroundings than the scientific aspect of which many people long for. Obviously shows the lack of knowledge displayed by Mary Shelly. Countries are close together Shows once again how much knowledge Mary Shelly had regarding geography. It sparks attention when she says that it takes longer to go from Geneva to Ingolstadt (a total of 413.6 miles) than it is to go to England. Monster has superhuman abilities yet he is made from human parts Page 70: I thought of pursuing the devil, but it would have been in vain, for another flash discovered him to me hanging among the rocks of the nearly perpendicular ascent of Mont Saleve, a hill that bounds Plainpalais on the south. He soon reached the summit and disappeared. Stereotyping of the Turkish and Irish people If Frankenstein had already created a monster, why did he need help from some other scientists for the creation of another monster? Page 153: I found that I could not compose a female without again devoting several months to profound study and laborious disquisition. I had heard of some discoveries having been made by an English philosopher, he knowledge of which was material to my success [] The Monster tells Frankenstein how hes survived mobs throwing rocks and several other projectiles and such, yet Frankenstein never stops trying to think he can kill the monster. Page 206: [] the monster whom I had created, the miserable demon whom I had sent abroad into the world for my destruction. I was possessed by a maddening rage when I thought of him, and desired and ardently prayed that I might have him within my grasp to wreak a great and signal revenge on his cursed head. All quotes from Mary Shelleys Frankenstein

Price Forecasts for Oil

Price Forecasts for Oil â€Å"TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING CRISIS ANALYSIS† Technology Futures Business Strategy 1st Assessment Project PART ONE Michel Godet indicated that qualitative parameters were important in accurate forecasting. Using the available information in the international literature and between 1000 and 1500 words: 1. Mention the qualitative parameters that may be considered in future energy price scenarios. For this purpose take the year 2020 and list, with a brief explanation, the parameters you consider should be included. 2. Which of these parameters can you reasonably quantify? (Attempt to identify at least five parameters) 3. Do you agree with this specific aspect of Godets proposition? Why or why not? 4. Evaluate a crisis impact of the accuracy of technology forecasting. Identify the parameters characterizing the crisis aspects. Accordingly, present your opinion about the validity of the forecasts. 5. Using the installed nuclear power data between 1967 and 1987 estimate (using extrapolation techniques) the expected nuclear power time evolution between 1987 and 2007. Comment on the accuracy of your forecasts in relation with the real data. Can you mention any lead time between the major accident of Chernobyl and the reaction of the international electrical power market? PART TWO The OPEC oil price rise in 1973 had an important effect on energy use and energy efficiency, although much of the impact was short-lived. In 2003-4 the oil price effectively doubled, reaching $50/barrel for a period and lately it has reached over $90/barrel. A major player now is Gazprom in Russia News has broken that Gazprom will cut supplies of natural gas to Europe unless it is allowed to raise prices by 200% for export customers, (Customers in Russia historically pay much lower prices). Using the available information in the international literature and between 2000 and 2500 words: 6. Describe your measured response to this, as either an energy Supplier or major energy user. 7. Would you say that your response was based upon â€Å"out of the box† solutions, or a more conservative, incremental approach? 8. Discuss the relative merits and limitations of each of these possible responses, identifying what you believe the two approaches mean. 9. How this crisis shall influence the future of European economies? How could these effects been mitigated? Make your own forecasts. Your answers to 6-8 above are based upon assumed positions within organisations which may employ many people. The next part of this question relates to the impact rising energy prices and, perhaps more importantly, the effect of climate change, may have on your own style of living. 10. At a personal/domestic level, can you foresee a situation in which we may consider that for the benefit of all, we may need to make do with less, in terms of capital goods, travel, and perceived acceptable levels of comfort? Technology Futures Business Strategy 1st Assessment Project PART A-Introduction Based on the Prospective approach and the scenarios method (Godet, 1982), Michel Godet noted the limitations of the classical forecasting concerned with quantification and models (see also Appendix, Table Ap.I). According to Godet, models that only consider quantified parameters do not take into account the development of new relationships and the possible changes in trends. The impossibility of forecasting the future as a function solely of past data is directly related to the omission of qualitative and non-quantifiable parameters such as the wishes and behaviour of relevant actors (Godet, 1982). Furthermore, to structure future scenarios, the variables related to the phenomenon under investigation and the variables configuring its environment should be recognized and analyzed in detail. Besides, the interrelationship among variables, the relative power and fundamental actors, their strategies and available resources as well as the objectives and constraints that must be overcome, should also be taken into account. By granting energy as a commodity under the view of conventional economic theories, markets and price mechanisms are used in order to allocate the respective resources. More specifically, it is the interaction of demand and supply in the markets that allocates resources and largely shapes prices, and it is the broader ecosystem boundaries that these market interactions take place in. Energy pricing, with energy being perceived either as an input or as a potentially polluting source of our ecosystem, clearly stands upon both the sub disciplines of resource and environmental economics (Sweeney, 2004), also depending on the social, political and technological status of the time being and the time to come until 2020. In this context, one may acknowledge a bundle of parameters that may be considered for configuring the respective future energy price scenarios. What is important to note is that similar to the beliefs of Godet, the parameters involved should be studied in terms of interrela tionship, while qualitative and non quantified parameters should be taken into account as well. Question 1 As already mentioned, the configuration of prices within a market -the energy market currently discussed- is largely dependent on the supply and demand balance. This is measured by the respective supply and demand tension expressing the status of a commodity in market terms and providing indications concerning potential energy price changes. While high tensions imply prices imbalance, the opposite is valid for low tension rates. Hence, in order to evaluate future energy prices on the basis of parameters, one should identify the parameters that influence the supply-demand balance in every of the fields previously acknowledged (i.e. social, political, environmental, economical and technological). In this context, in 1.1 the most influential of the parameters configuring energy prices may be encountered. Energy markets are largely influenced by the economic growth factors expressed on the basis of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, interest and unemployment rates. Given the economic growth along with the parameter of demographics (regarding both the population increase and migrations) one may picture the corresponding trend in energy consumption (i.e. the demand side). Following, policy decisions concerning the determination of fuel mix are determinative as far as energy pricing is considered. For instance, fossil fuels continuing to dominate will stimulate stricter pollution prevention legislation measures (e.g. taxation) and policies for tackling climate change and global warming that will raise energy prices. In parallel, the reinforcement of the respective market holders, potentially leading to strong monopolies, should also be expected. Turning to renewable energy sources may on the one hand -for some of the technologies- imply an adjustment period in order for the corresponding markets to balance and on the other entail significant environmental benefits, in monetary terms as well. Global warming and climate change effects being evident supports the implementation of mitigation measures towards the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this holding a key role in respect of the future. Reserves holding a key role in the future configuration of energy prices not only in terms of scarcity, but also in terms of production costs is directly related with the technological development concerning the exploitation of new deposits and the promotion of substitutes. As already implied, the power of existing markets is another key factor while the efficiency and absorption of energy investments -the investment shares and outcomes of research and development efforts should be underlined- must be also taken into account. The factors concerned with the quality of life suggest an additional parameter that may affect energy consumption patterns and one that cannot be easily captured despite of the indices recommended so far (Allen, 1991). Moreover, as properly put in the Annual Energy Outlook of 2007 (EIA, 2007a), energy markets projections are subject to much uncertainty (unanticipated events). Many of the events that shape energy markets and therefore the price of energy as well cannot be foreseen. These include unexpected weather events and natural disasters (Rezek and Blair, 2008), major innovations and technological breakthroughs (Marbà ¡n and Valdà ©s-Solà ­s, 2007; Varandas, 2008), disruptions and whirls in the political level (Stern, 2006) with analogous societal consequences, the outbreak of a war (Tahmassebi, 1986; Fernandez, 2008) or a nuclear accident, all of them either smouldering or implying blind spots that cannot be directly projected and consequently quantified. Besides, another area of uncertainty is concerned with the fact that even the established trends steady evolution cannot be guaranteed. Summarizing, a brief explanation was presently given on how each of the parameters acknowledged may influence energy pricing. Additionally, an effort was also carried out in order to give a short description of the interrelationship among parameters, this supporting one of Godets arguments. Insisting on the interrelationship of variables, several of the parameters previously encountered should be diffused to every major regional energy market, the latter being largely influenced by the relationship between fuel types and energy sectors (see also 1.2). Eventually, one may result in a rather complex system that encounters the evolution of influential parameters inside the balance between energy types and energy sectors, this revealing the crucial role of energy fuel mix previously discussed. Following, an effort is carried out in order to reasonably quantify some of the parameters acknowledged. Question 2 Given the bundle of parameters that are thought to influence future energy pricing, a certain number of them can be quantified. For instance, the parameters of population, economic growth, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, energy reserves, and energy fuel mix can be expressed in numerical terms. Demographic growth examines how regional and global demography changes over time. According to the United Nations projections (UN, 2006), world population will increase by over 1 billion people in the years to come until 2020, this suggesting an annual increase rate of 1.1%. While in some areas there is a negative population growth to be considered (e.g. European countries), the opposite may be encountered for some of the Asian countries (e.g. India) where overpopulation is met (see for example 2.1 with EIA forecasts). Besides, the migration of people comprises an additional factor influencing energy patterns via the imposition of unequal population distribution already encountered due to birth and mortality rates. Based on the energy consumption trends ( 2.2), it is expected that energy demand related to all energy products will increase in the years to come, even in such levels that supply may not be able to adequately respond (Asif and Muneer, 2007). In fact, the annual world energy consumption growth is approximately 2% with projections supporting future average rates of 1.1% per annum (EIA, 2007b). In fact, by considering the two of parameters so far examined one may result in the most substantial energy per cap index, clearly establishing the differentiation in energy consumption patterns among world regions (see also question 10). Furthermore, according to the WEO claims (WEC, 2007) that energy generated from fossil fuels will remain the main energy source (expected to cover almost 83% of global energy demand in 2030) and given the 2020 time horizon, much depends on the appearing constraints of world energy reserves, especially those regarding oil and natural gas. While certain studies sound relieving (WCI, 2007), others questioning the extent of increase in the production outputs ring the alarm of forthcoming peaks within the next one or two decades (Bentley, 2002). If the latter is valid, the corresponding demand will not be met, prices will rise, inflation, and international tension will become very likely to occur, and inevitably energy users will have to ration (Wirl, 2008). Overall, what the combination of energy mix with energy reserves provides is the measuring of security of supply, the latter configuring the supply and demand tensions, largely shaping energy prices. Besides, targets set in respect of renewable energy sources further penetration also provide a quantification view; e.g. the EWEA target for 22% coverage of the European electricity consumption by 2030 (EWEA, 2006). Next, expressing economic growth on the basis of gross domestic product (GDP) suggests a constant increase of the former within the range of an average 3% to 4% per year (IMF, 2004), noted during the period from 1970 to 2003. Again, inequity that is to be considered among different world regions is directly related with the previous parameters, illustrating the energy requirements variation. A characteristic example considers China demonstrating an average annual percent change of GDP 2.4% greater than the world average. In 2.3, the respective trends of GDP growth up to the year 2020 may be obtained. Finally, the environmental impact of energy use being expressed on the basis of GHG emissions not only considers the fuel mix and energy consumption but also takes into account the technology used for energy generation. Taking CO2, an increase of 17Gt in a 34 years period, i.e. from 1970 to 2004 (IPCC, 2007), indicates the strong increasing trend, also presented in 2.4. Given also some of the commitments adopted in order to mitigate the greenhouse effect however (e.g. the Kyoto protocol), further quantification, not relying solely on past trends, is possible. The stimulation of additional mitigation measures until 2020 is rather likely, this both imposing the need for shifting to non-fossil fuels and developing cleaner energy generation technologies. Considering the various parameters trends illustrated above, one may sense that the tensions between supply and demand, this comprising the main driver for energy prices, are going to rise. Energy consumption, GDP and population rates on one hand demonstrate the demand side, while declining reserves and mitigation measures describe the opposite supply side. In between, the decisions for future energy fuel mix patterns, although able to completely reverse the energy markets status quo, are not thought to radically vary within the next 10 to 15 years. Hence, unless some major changes occur, the rising tensions between supply and demand imply both instability and increase of prices on a global level with strong differentiation to be encountered among different world regions. As far as the degree of energy price variation is concerned, the implementation of forecasting may both incorporate all of the pre-mentioned parameters and provide various scenarios considering each ones expected fu ture time evolution. Question 3 As previously seen, several parameters were acknowledged in order to form future energy price scenarios. While some of them were possible to quantify, others although not quantified were equally important inputs to keep in mind. Apart from the given inaccuracy of data (either high or low levelled) coupled with unstable models and the pertinacity of explaining the future in terms of the past, Godet emphasizes on the lack of a global and qualitative approach concerned with forecasting (Godet, 1982). Although quantitative methods may prove to be reliable enough and reasonably accurate for short term forecasts, the same is not valid for forecasts concerned with longer periods. The greater the distance from the reference point, the more obvious is the inability of quantitative data to provide valid forecasts (see also 3.1). In this context, it is critical to comment on the relativity of time scales noted among the study of various phenomena. Hence, what may seem short termed for one phenomenon studied may actually comprise a long period forecast for another that appears to be rapidly changing over time. Any case given, the chances of significant changes regarding the environment in which the phenomenon under study develops are considerably higher as the time horizon becomes longer and it would be more or less naà ¯ve to solely depend on forecasting methods like the extrapolation of trends. Furthermore, the complexity of phenomena studied and the interdependence among the influencing parameters calls for the inclusion of both quantitative and qualitative parameters with Godet clearly addressing the complementarity between the prospective and classical forecasting (Godet, 1982). It was in fact during the first section of this part that the analysis of energy pricing configuration revealed the importance of interaction between quantitative and qualitative parameters. Energy price could not be disengaged from the parallel evolvement of parameters that even though not easily quantified, do structure the phenomenon environment (e.g. political, technological, economic, social, legal and other aspects). What must be outlined here is that similar to the scaling of decision making (strategic-long term, innovative-medium term, operational-short term), the role of quantitative data is gradually fading out as we tend to conceptualize the entire phenomenon environment. Hence the bro ader the view, again the more obvious is the inability of quantitative data to support a reliable forecasting (see also 2.1). Although in its extreme point of view, Godets proposition perfectly fits the ability of diagnosing forthcoming crises. Already extremely difficult to predict a crisis, omitting parameters such as the wishes of relevant actors and other influential factors that cannot be quantified makes it impossible even to sense it. It is in this context that one should not disregard the importance of other forecasting resources -apart from data- including assumptions, insight and judgment, all of them involving the subjectivity factor. If managing to get over the reef of the NIH syndrome, creativity and broad minded thinking are also essential elements for good forecasting. Question 4 1973 may be granted as the most pivotal year in energy history. The energy crisis defining the period began on October 17, 1973, when the Arab members of OPEC along with Egypt and Syria, all together comprising OAPEC, decided to place an embargo on shipments of crude oil to nations that had supported Israel in its conflict with Syria and Egypt, mainly targeting at the United States and Netherlands. The result of this decision also brought about major oil price increases. Because of the fact that OPEC was the dominant oil distributor at the time, the price increase implied serious impacts on the national economies of the targeted countries, therefore suggesting an international range crisis. Although the embargo was lifted in March 1974, the effects of the energy crisis, mainly in terms of price increase, lingered on throughout the 1970s, with the Iranian crisis aggravating the situation (see also 4.1). Suggesting a crisis that was mainly expressed on the basis of high energy pricing, the outcome of the previous questions concerned with the determination of energy price influential parameters may be illustrated. In fact, the impact of a more or less unanticipated event changed the correlation patterns between supply and demand and imposed the attachment of high tensions in the market balance, the latter entailing the high volatility of oil price and its potential outburst ever since (Regnier, 2007). The market structures, the dominance of OPEC and the political tension, all suggest aspects of the crisis illustrating the importance of considering qualitative parameters as well. As Godet well pointed out, one cannot neglect the wishes and decisions of major actors when configuring the future (e.g. OPEC members). Similar to the 1973 oil crisis, the California energy crisis occurring some 27 years later also revealed the strength of key actors in completely changing what was meant to follow a past trend or ameliorate a past situation. The deregulation of the electricity market in California (during 1998) targeting to decrease the highest of retail prices among the States turned into a complete fiasco that abetted the manipulation of the market by the energy companies. The crisis main characteristics involved very high wholesale prices, interrupted service of customers (rolling blackouts), bankrupt utilities and huge state expenditures, while the crisis main causes were: The lack of new generating capacity inside California (California was heavily dependent on energy imports from nearby states (CEC, 2007a)). The coincidence of a dry year and natural gas spikes with other market oriented factors (California was largely based on hydro and natural gas for the consumers electrification). The market structure allowing generators to manipulate wholesale prices in the power exchange market through escalating power plants outages that caused market disorder (on the other hand there was a retail price cap that did not allow the investor owned utilities to pass the increasing cost of wholesale purchases to consumers). The delay and inability of the regulators to predict the crisis and respond to it (it was only after a certain time that a wholesale cap was set by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and an increase of retail prices was allowed to the investor owned utilities). Emphasizing on the manipulation of the market by the energy generators, in 4.2 one may observe the out of schedule power plant outages rapid increase during the period of the crisis, even exceeding 10GW (approximately 20% of the total installed capacity), responsible for three series of rolling blackouts. No prediction could have captured the 300% and 400% increases of power plants outages. The analogous increase in wholesale prices being the result of the appearing power deficit caused the major suppliers (3 major investor utilities (IOUs)) to be trapped between remarkable wholesale price increases and a fixed retail price (see 4.3). Further, as seen in 4.3, in the early days of deregulation a relatively smooth trend was to be encountered as far as the wholesale market prices are concerned, this also not implying the rapid increase of prices following. Accordingly, although not influenced to the same extent that the IOUs were, the instant impact to the final consumers must also be considered. Note that according to the rough forecast of retail electricity prices -being based on the respective past data- the increase of retail prices was not to be expected either because deregulation promised for a lowering of prices or because the trend applied entailed much lower prices then the ones actually presented at the time (see also 4.4). Similar to this, predictions involving oil pricing before the 1973 crisis and relying on extrapolation techniques (Anon, 1973) expected that world energy consumption would keep up in the increasing rates of 5% up to 2000. If having managed to somehow foresee the 1973 oil price increase, the predictions made would not be exclusively based on the past data trend that would undoubtedly provide a misjudgement of future prices (see also 4.5). What actually followed for the years to come (1980 to 2000) was a 20 years mean annual increase rate of 1.7%. Furthermore, if only having used quantitative data, none could have predicted before the crisis that USA would cut back on oil use. In , 4.6 the response of the USA to the crisis effect reveals the review of energy patterns issued by the government for the times to come. What is also interesting to note in the is the lead time in order to adapt to the new situation encountered (e.g. the natural gas contribution share started increasing 5 year s after the crisis). Another critical point concerning the weaknesses of forecasting previous to crises, not related to the use of numerical past data, may be met in the case of California. Once the regulators and the state adopted a deregulation system that was elsewhere applied successfully (Woo et al., 2003), they decided to proceed in certain modifications (i.e. partial deregulation and imposition of retail price caps) without bothering to consider the different characteristics, features and conditions of operation encountered in the California environment. Hence what might have been thought as successful elsewhere would not be a priori successful in California as well. Finally, if the modification of market structures and potential manipulations had been taken into account via the implementation of alternative scenarios assessing the risk of deregulating the Californian electricity market, certain versatile mechanisms that would instantly respond to a potential crisis may have been put forward. From the analysis provided it becomes clear that forecasting methods that solely rely on past data trends, disregard the wishes of relevant actors and major players, and do not consider the conditions forming the environment where the phenomenon develops cannot capture a broader view of the situation and thus give valid predictions. Question 5 As already addressed, the limited ability of quantitative parameters and extrapolation techniques to provide a valid forecasting, especially in the case where a crisis was to follow, is indisputable. To validate the conclusion made and further support Godets beliefs an example is presently given. Using the installed nuclear power data between 1967 and 1987 along with the application of extrapolation techniques (the forecast function is currently used) one may present the expected nuclear capacity time evolution for the next twenty years. A straightforward comparison of the extrapolation s with the respective real data for the period 1987 to 2007 is available in 5.1. What of course cannot be captured by the extrapolation technique is the Chernobyl crisis, deeply influencing any further development of the nuclear installations. It was on the 26th of April 1986 that reactor number four at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, located in Ukraine exploded. By considering the magnitude of consequences that the Chernobyl accident entailed (UNDP UNICEF, 2002), one may easily realize the cut back of nuclear capacity in the years to come. Furthermore, what is interesting to note is the different influence that the Chernobyl accident had in countries around the world. In 5.2 one may see the immediate response of the Russians, the Germans and the Ukrainians, while it took a little longer for the USA to reconsider its nuclear program. On the contrary, countries like France and Japan continued to install nuclear plants, while on the other hand Italy abandoned its nuclear program and gradually decommissioned all of its plants (NEA, 2007). What is evaluated here, is the conditions configuring the future. Although in a global level, nuclear capacity did stagnate, this was not the case for every country. Depending on each nations needs, requirements and obligations, a different energy policy may be drawn. If not properly weighing these factors in the forecasting process, the outcome cannot be valid. Based on s 5.1 and 5.2, one may also note the lead time of both the international community and the selected countries. Regarding the response of the world as a whole, a period of 3 to 4 years is to be considered for the international community to perform the actions concerned with the decision of cutting back on nuclears. As already noted, a varying response time met in different countries may be partially ascribed to the distance range from the area of the accident. However, a bundle of parameters should be evaluated in order to explain and predict each actors wishes, obligations and decisions. Moreover, when investigating the long term evolution of nuclear power, one should also consider the factor of a rapidly changing environment. Since the Chernobyl accident and the stagnation of nuclear power occurred, any attempt to reestablish previous growth rates has to deal with competitors such as the galloping natural gas market, the return of the coal sector and the maturity of renewable energy technologies (Lovins, 2005). Besides, the considerations regarding waste management, decommissioning expenses and the risk of a new Chernobyl still remain strong. PART B-Introduction Europe becoming increasingly dependent on imported amounts of energy is indisputable. According to the estimations of the recent business as usual scenarios (EC, 2007), it is expected that the energy imports dependency of Europe will increase from the present 50% to a total of 65% by 2030. Within this forecast, reliance on imports of natural gas is expected to increase from 57% to 84% while the respective increase for oil imports shall correspond to an additional 11%, i.e. from 82% to 93%. In this context, European countries and Russia hold a strong interdependency bond based on the significant European energy imports of oil and natural gas supplied by Russia. Note that loss of autonomy is always a side effect of an interdependent relationship as the parties are constrained by their need for one another. Gazprom being the largest Russian company and the greatest natural gas exporter in the world (Cedigaz, 2007) constantly raises its share in the European market, with the respective volume of natural gas supplies reaching 161.5 billion cubic meters during 2006 (Gazprom, 2007), equal to approximately 26% of the total European natural gas needs. Being also Russias single natural gas exporter (according to the Federal Law on Natural Gas Exports adopted in July 2006), Gazprom alone utilizes the existing natural gas pipelines in order to supply Europe (see also Appendix, Existing Natural Gas Pipelines). Meanwhile a series of recent and past events mainly suggesting disputes with Ukraine and Belarus (Bruce, 2005; Stern, 2006) have questioned the security of supply towards Europe, this revealing the potential gaming behavior of the Russians, either to satisfy political purposes or simply take advantage of the energy card in terms of increased pricing. Similar to the 1973 energy crisis and the recent oil price major increases, a scenario concerned with the raise of European natural gas supplies price by Gazprom is to be examined. The scenario supports that unless the desire of Gazprom for a 200% increase of natural gas prices is satisfied, supply towards Europe will be stopped. Question 6 Given the threat of a 200% price increase of natural gas heading towards European countries, an effort is presently carried out in order to investigate the measured responses of both an energy supplier and an energy user being involved in the potential crisis occurrence. Because of the particular features attributed to the subject under investigation, several cases of different energy suppliers and users may be examined. A macroscopic approach may consider two major sides, i.e. the European countries and Gazprom (Russia). However, a closer look focusing on country level and considering organizations as well is thought to be essential in order to better evaluate the situation. As already seen in the previous question concerned with the nuclear power evolution, not all countries responded in the same way to the Chernobyl crisis (NEA, 2007). Working on a country level, energy users will derive from the main Gazprom customers in both Western-Central Europe and the Commonwealth of Indepen dent States (CIS)-Baltic countries (see also Table 6.I). On the other hand, the major energy supplier shall refer to either Gazprom or another natural gas supplier. The alternative of considering different energy sources suppliers will be also outlined. Furthermore, both conservative and more extreme solutions responding to the problem will be considered. Table 6.I: Key s o Price Forecasts for Oil Price Forecasts for Oil â€Å"TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING CRISIS ANALYSIS† Technology Futures Business Strategy 1st Assessment Project PART ONE Michel Godet indicated that qualitative parameters were important in accurate forecasting. Using the available information in the international literature and between 1000 and 1500 words: 1. Mention the qualitative parameters that may be considered in future energy price scenarios. For this purpose take the year 2020 and list, with a brief explanation, the parameters you consider should be included. 2. Which of these parameters can you reasonably quantify? (Attempt to identify at least five parameters) 3. Do you agree with this specific aspect of Godets proposition? Why or why not? 4. Evaluate a crisis impact of the accuracy of technology forecasting. Identify the parameters characterizing the crisis aspects. Accordingly, present your opinion about the validity of the forecasts. 5. Using the installed nuclear power data between 1967 and 1987 estimate (using extrapolation techniques) the expected nuclear power time evolution between 1987 and 2007. Comment on the accuracy of your forecasts in relation with the real data. Can you mention any lead time between the major accident of Chernobyl and the reaction of the international electrical power market? PART TWO The OPEC oil price rise in 1973 had an important effect on energy use and energy efficiency, although much of the impact was short-lived. In 2003-4 the oil price effectively doubled, reaching $50/barrel for a period and lately it has reached over $90/barrel. A major player now is Gazprom in Russia News has broken that Gazprom will cut supplies of natural gas to Europe unless it is allowed to raise prices by 200% for export customers, (Customers in Russia historically pay much lower prices). Using the available information in the international literature and between 2000 and 2500 words: 6. Describe your measured response to this, as either an energy Supplier or major energy user. 7. Would you say that your response was based upon â€Å"out of the box† solutions, or a more conservative, incremental approach? 8. Discuss the relative merits and limitations of each of these possible responses, identifying what you believe the two approaches mean. 9. How this crisis shall influence the future of European economies? How could these effects been mitigated? Make your own forecasts. Your answers to 6-8 above are based upon assumed positions within organisations which may employ many people. The next part of this question relates to the impact rising energy prices and, perhaps more importantly, the effect of climate change, may have on your own style of living. 10. At a personal/domestic level, can you foresee a situation in which we may consider that for the benefit of all, we may need to make do with less, in terms of capital goods, travel, and perceived acceptable levels of comfort? Technology Futures Business Strategy 1st Assessment Project PART A-Introduction Based on the Prospective approach and the scenarios method (Godet, 1982), Michel Godet noted the limitations of the classical forecasting concerned with quantification and models (see also Appendix, Table Ap.I). According to Godet, models that only consider quantified parameters do not take into account the development of new relationships and the possible changes in trends. The impossibility of forecasting the future as a function solely of past data is directly related to the omission of qualitative and non-quantifiable parameters such as the wishes and behaviour of relevant actors (Godet, 1982). Furthermore, to structure future scenarios, the variables related to the phenomenon under investigation and the variables configuring its environment should be recognized and analyzed in detail. Besides, the interrelationship among variables, the relative power and fundamental actors, their strategies and available resources as well as the objectives and constraints that must be overcome, should also be taken into account. By granting energy as a commodity under the view of conventional economic theories, markets and price mechanisms are used in order to allocate the respective resources. More specifically, it is the interaction of demand and supply in the markets that allocates resources and largely shapes prices, and it is the broader ecosystem boundaries that these market interactions take place in. Energy pricing, with energy being perceived either as an input or as a potentially polluting source of our ecosystem, clearly stands upon both the sub disciplines of resource and environmental economics (Sweeney, 2004), also depending on the social, political and technological status of the time being and the time to come until 2020. In this context, one may acknowledge a bundle of parameters that may be considered for configuring the respective future energy price scenarios. What is important to note is that similar to the beliefs of Godet, the parameters involved should be studied in terms of interrela tionship, while qualitative and non quantified parameters should be taken into account as well. Question 1 As already mentioned, the configuration of prices within a market -the energy market currently discussed- is largely dependent on the supply and demand balance. This is measured by the respective supply and demand tension expressing the status of a commodity in market terms and providing indications concerning potential energy price changes. While high tensions imply prices imbalance, the opposite is valid for low tension rates. Hence, in order to evaluate future energy prices on the basis of parameters, one should identify the parameters that influence the supply-demand balance in every of the fields previously acknowledged (i.e. social, political, environmental, economical and technological). In this context, in 1.1 the most influential of the parameters configuring energy prices may be encountered. Energy markets are largely influenced by the economic growth factors expressed on the basis of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, interest and unemployment rates. Given the economic growth along with the parameter of demographics (regarding both the population increase and migrations) one may picture the corresponding trend in energy consumption (i.e. the demand side). Following, policy decisions concerning the determination of fuel mix are determinative as far as energy pricing is considered. For instance, fossil fuels continuing to dominate will stimulate stricter pollution prevention legislation measures (e.g. taxation) and policies for tackling climate change and global warming that will raise energy prices. In parallel, the reinforcement of the respective market holders, potentially leading to strong monopolies, should also be expected. Turning to renewable energy sources may on the one hand -for some of the technologies- imply an adjustment period in order for the corresponding markets to balance and on the other entail significant environmental benefits, in monetary terms as well. Global warming and climate change effects being evident supports the implementation of mitigation measures towards the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this holding a key role in respect of the future. Reserves holding a key role in the future configuration of energy prices not only in terms of scarcity, but also in terms of production costs is directly related with the technological development concerning the exploitation of new deposits and the promotion of substitutes. As already implied, the power of existing markets is another key factor while the efficiency and absorption of energy investments -the investment shares and outcomes of research and development efforts should be underlined- must be also taken into account. The factors concerned with the quality of life suggest an additional parameter that may affect energy consumption patterns and one that cannot be easily captured despite of the indices recommended so far (Allen, 1991). Moreover, as properly put in the Annual Energy Outlook of 2007 (EIA, 2007a), energy markets projections are subject to much uncertainty (unanticipated events). Many of the events that shape energy markets and therefore the price of energy as well cannot be foreseen. These include unexpected weather events and natural disasters (Rezek and Blair, 2008), major innovations and technological breakthroughs (Marbà ¡n and Valdà ©s-Solà ­s, 2007; Varandas, 2008), disruptions and whirls in the political level (Stern, 2006) with analogous societal consequences, the outbreak of a war (Tahmassebi, 1986; Fernandez, 2008) or a nuclear accident, all of them either smouldering or implying blind spots that cannot be directly projected and consequently quantified. Besides, another area of uncertainty is concerned with the fact that even the established trends steady evolution cannot be guaranteed. Summarizing, a brief explanation was presently given on how each of the parameters acknowledged may influence energy pricing. Additionally, an effort was also carried out in order to give a short description of the interrelationship among parameters, this supporting one of Godets arguments. Insisting on the interrelationship of variables, several of the parameters previously encountered should be diffused to every major regional energy market, the latter being largely influenced by the relationship between fuel types and energy sectors (see also 1.2). Eventually, one may result in a rather complex system that encounters the evolution of influential parameters inside the balance between energy types and energy sectors, this revealing the crucial role of energy fuel mix previously discussed. Following, an effort is carried out in order to reasonably quantify some of the parameters acknowledged. Question 2 Given the bundle of parameters that are thought to influence future energy pricing, a certain number of them can be quantified. For instance, the parameters of population, economic growth, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, energy reserves, and energy fuel mix can be expressed in numerical terms. Demographic growth examines how regional and global demography changes over time. According to the United Nations projections (UN, 2006), world population will increase by over 1 billion people in the years to come until 2020, this suggesting an annual increase rate of 1.1%. While in some areas there is a negative population growth to be considered (e.g. European countries), the opposite may be encountered for some of the Asian countries (e.g. India) where overpopulation is met (see for example 2.1 with EIA forecasts). Besides, the migration of people comprises an additional factor influencing energy patterns via the imposition of unequal population distribution already encountered due to birth and mortality rates. Based on the energy consumption trends ( 2.2), it is expected that energy demand related to all energy products will increase in the years to come, even in such levels that supply may not be able to adequately respond (Asif and Muneer, 2007). In fact, the annual world energy consumption growth is approximately 2% with projections supporting future average rates of 1.1% per annum (EIA, 2007b). In fact, by considering the two of parameters so far examined one may result in the most substantial energy per cap index, clearly establishing the differentiation in energy consumption patterns among world regions (see also question 10). Furthermore, according to the WEO claims (WEC, 2007) that energy generated from fossil fuels will remain the main energy source (expected to cover almost 83% of global energy demand in 2030) and given the 2020 time horizon, much depends on the appearing constraints of world energy reserves, especially those regarding oil and natural gas. While certain studies sound relieving (WCI, 2007), others questioning the extent of increase in the production outputs ring the alarm of forthcoming peaks within the next one or two decades (Bentley, 2002). If the latter is valid, the corresponding demand will not be met, prices will rise, inflation, and international tension will become very likely to occur, and inevitably energy users will have to ration (Wirl, 2008). Overall, what the combination of energy mix with energy reserves provides is the measuring of security of supply, the latter configuring the supply and demand tensions, largely shaping energy prices. Besides, targets set in respect of renewable energy sources further penetration also provide a quantification view; e.g. the EWEA target for 22% coverage of the European electricity consumption by 2030 (EWEA, 2006). Next, expressing economic growth on the basis of gross domestic product (GDP) suggests a constant increase of the former within the range of an average 3% to 4% per year (IMF, 2004), noted during the period from 1970 to 2003. Again, inequity that is to be considered among different world regions is directly related with the previous parameters, illustrating the energy requirements variation. A characteristic example considers China demonstrating an average annual percent change of GDP 2.4% greater than the world average. In 2.3, the respective trends of GDP growth up to the year 2020 may be obtained. Finally, the environmental impact of energy use being expressed on the basis of GHG emissions not only considers the fuel mix and energy consumption but also takes into account the technology used for energy generation. Taking CO2, an increase of 17Gt in a 34 years period, i.e. from 1970 to 2004 (IPCC, 2007), indicates the strong increasing trend, also presented in 2.4. Given also some of the commitments adopted in order to mitigate the greenhouse effect however (e.g. the Kyoto protocol), further quantification, not relying solely on past trends, is possible. The stimulation of additional mitigation measures until 2020 is rather likely, this both imposing the need for shifting to non-fossil fuels and developing cleaner energy generation technologies. Considering the various parameters trends illustrated above, one may sense that the tensions between supply and demand, this comprising the main driver for energy prices, are going to rise. Energy consumption, GDP and population rates on one hand demonstrate the demand side, while declining reserves and mitigation measures describe the opposite supply side. In between, the decisions for future energy fuel mix patterns, although able to completely reverse the energy markets status quo, are not thought to radically vary within the next 10 to 15 years. Hence, unless some major changes occur, the rising tensions between supply and demand imply both instability and increase of prices on a global level with strong differentiation to be encountered among different world regions. As far as the degree of energy price variation is concerned, the implementation of forecasting may both incorporate all of the pre-mentioned parameters and provide various scenarios considering each ones expected fu ture time evolution. Question 3 As previously seen, several parameters were acknowledged in order to form future energy price scenarios. While some of them were possible to quantify, others although not quantified were equally important inputs to keep in mind. Apart from the given inaccuracy of data (either high or low levelled) coupled with unstable models and the pertinacity of explaining the future in terms of the past, Godet emphasizes on the lack of a global and qualitative approach concerned with forecasting (Godet, 1982). Although quantitative methods may prove to be reliable enough and reasonably accurate for short term forecasts, the same is not valid for forecasts concerned with longer periods. The greater the distance from the reference point, the more obvious is the inability of quantitative data to provide valid forecasts (see also 3.1). In this context, it is critical to comment on the relativity of time scales noted among the study of various phenomena. Hence, what may seem short termed for one phenomenon studied may actually comprise a long period forecast for another that appears to be rapidly changing over time. Any case given, the chances of significant changes regarding the environment in which the phenomenon under study develops are considerably higher as the time horizon becomes longer and it would be more or less naà ¯ve to solely depend on forecasting methods like the extrapolation of trends. Furthermore, the complexity of phenomena studied and the interdependence among the influencing parameters calls for the inclusion of both quantitative and qualitative parameters with Godet clearly addressing the complementarity between the prospective and classical forecasting (Godet, 1982). It was in fact during the first section of this part that the analysis of energy pricing configuration revealed the importance of interaction between quantitative and qualitative parameters. Energy price could not be disengaged from the parallel evolvement of parameters that even though not easily quantified, do structure the phenomenon environment (e.g. political, technological, economic, social, legal and other aspects). What must be outlined here is that similar to the scaling of decision making (strategic-long term, innovative-medium term, operational-short term), the role of quantitative data is gradually fading out as we tend to conceptualize the entire phenomenon environment. Hence the bro ader the view, again the more obvious is the inability of quantitative data to support a reliable forecasting (see also 2.1). Although in its extreme point of view, Godets proposition perfectly fits the ability of diagnosing forthcoming crises. Already extremely difficult to predict a crisis, omitting parameters such as the wishes of relevant actors and other influential factors that cannot be quantified makes it impossible even to sense it. It is in this context that one should not disregard the importance of other forecasting resources -apart from data- including assumptions, insight and judgment, all of them involving the subjectivity factor. If managing to get over the reef of the NIH syndrome, creativity and broad minded thinking are also essential elements for good forecasting. Question 4 1973 may be granted as the most pivotal year in energy history. The energy crisis defining the period began on October 17, 1973, when the Arab members of OPEC along with Egypt and Syria, all together comprising OAPEC, decided to place an embargo on shipments of crude oil to nations that had supported Israel in its conflict with Syria and Egypt, mainly targeting at the United States and Netherlands. The result of this decision also brought about major oil price increases. Because of the fact that OPEC was the dominant oil distributor at the time, the price increase implied serious impacts on the national economies of the targeted countries, therefore suggesting an international range crisis. Although the embargo was lifted in March 1974, the effects of the energy crisis, mainly in terms of price increase, lingered on throughout the 1970s, with the Iranian crisis aggravating the situation (see also 4.1). Suggesting a crisis that was mainly expressed on the basis of high energy pricing, the outcome of the previous questions concerned with the determination of energy price influential parameters may be illustrated. In fact, the impact of a more or less unanticipated event changed the correlation patterns between supply and demand and imposed the attachment of high tensions in the market balance, the latter entailing the high volatility of oil price and its potential outburst ever since (Regnier, 2007). The market structures, the dominance of OPEC and the political tension, all suggest aspects of the crisis illustrating the importance of considering qualitative parameters as well. As Godet well pointed out, one cannot neglect the wishes and decisions of major actors when configuring the future (e.g. OPEC members). Similar to the 1973 oil crisis, the California energy crisis occurring some 27 years later also revealed the strength of key actors in completely changing what was meant to follow a past trend or ameliorate a past situation. The deregulation of the electricity market in California (during 1998) targeting to decrease the highest of retail prices among the States turned into a complete fiasco that abetted the manipulation of the market by the energy companies. The crisis main characteristics involved very high wholesale prices, interrupted service of customers (rolling blackouts), bankrupt utilities and huge state expenditures, while the crisis main causes were: The lack of new generating capacity inside California (California was heavily dependent on energy imports from nearby states (CEC, 2007a)). The coincidence of a dry year and natural gas spikes with other market oriented factors (California was largely based on hydro and natural gas for the consumers electrification). The market structure allowing generators to manipulate wholesale prices in the power exchange market through escalating power plants outages that caused market disorder (on the other hand there was a retail price cap that did not allow the investor owned utilities to pass the increasing cost of wholesale purchases to consumers). The delay and inability of the regulators to predict the crisis and respond to it (it was only after a certain time that a wholesale cap was set by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and an increase of retail prices was allowed to the investor owned utilities). Emphasizing on the manipulation of the market by the energy generators, in 4.2 one may observe the out of schedule power plant outages rapid increase during the period of the crisis, even exceeding 10GW (approximately 20% of the total installed capacity), responsible for three series of rolling blackouts. No prediction could have captured the 300% and 400% increases of power plants outages. The analogous increase in wholesale prices being the result of the appearing power deficit caused the major suppliers (3 major investor utilities (IOUs)) to be trapped between remarkable wholesale price increases and a fixed retail price (see 4.3). Further, as seen in 4.3, in the early days of deregulation a relatively smooth trend was to be encountered as far as the wholesale market prices are concerned, this also not implying the rapid increase of prices following. Accordingly, although not influenced to the same extent that the IOUs were, the instant impact to the final consumers must also be considered. Note that according to the rough forecast of retail electricity prices -being based on the respective past data- the increase of retail prices was not to be expected either because deregulation promised for a lowering of prices or because the trend applied entailed much lower prices then the ones actually presented at the time (see also 4.4). Similar to this, predictions involving oil pricing before the 1973 crisis and relying on extrapolation techniques (Anon, 1973) expected that world energy consumption would keep up in the increasing rates of 5% up to 2000. If having managed to somehow foresee the 1973 oil price increase, the predictions made would not be exclusively based on the past data trend that would undoubtedly provide a misjudgement of future prices (see also 4.5). What actually followed for the years to come (1980 to 2000) was a 20 years mean annual increase rate of 1.7%. Furthermore, if only having used quantitative data, none could have predicted before the crisis that USA would cut back on oil use. In , 4.6 the response of the USA to the crisis effect reveals the review of energy patterns issued by the government for the times to come. What is also interesting to note in the is the lead time in order to adapt to the new situation encountered (e.g. the natural gas contribution share started increasing 5 year s after the crisis). Another critical point concerning the weaknesses of forecasting previous to crises, not related to the use of numerical past data, may be met in the case of California. Once the regulators and the state adopted a deregulation system that was elsewhere applied successfully (Woo et al., 2003), they decided to proceed in certain modifications (i.e. partial deregulation and imposition of retail price caps) without bothering to consider the different characteristics, features and conditions of operation encountered in the California environment. Hence what might have been thought as successful elsewhere would not be a priori successful in California as well. Finally, if the modification of market structures and potential manipulations had been taken into account via the implementation of alternative scenarios assessing the risk of deregulating the Californian electricity market, certain versatile mechanisms that would instantly respond to a potential crisis may have been put forward. From the analysis provided it becomes clear that forecasting methods that solely rely on past data trends, disregard the wishes of relevant actors and major players, and do not consider the conditions forming the environment where the phenomenon develops cannot capture a broader view of the situation and thus give valid predictions. Question 5 As already addressed, the limited ability of quantitative parameters and extrapolation techniques to provide a valid forecasting, especially in the case where a crisis was to follow, is indisputable. To validate the conclusion made and further support Godets beliefs an example is presently given. Using the installed nuclear power data between 1967 and 1987 along with the application of extrapolation techniques (the forecast function is currently used) one may present the expected nuclear capacity time evolution for the next twenty years. A straightforward comparison of the extrapolation s with the respective real data for the period 1987 to 2007 is available in 5.1. What of course cannot be captured by the extrapolation technique is the Chernobyl crisis, deeply influencing any further development of the nuclear installations. It was on the 26th of April 1986 that reactor number four at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, located in Ukraine exploded. By considering the magnitude of consequences that the Chernobyl accident entailed (UNDP UNICEF, 2002), one may easily realize the cut back of nuclear capacity in the years to come. Furthermore, what is interesting to note is the different influence that the Chernobyl accident had in countries around the world. In 5.2 one may see the immediate response of the Russians, the Germans and the Ukrainians, while it took a little longer for the USA to reconsider its nuclear program. On the contrary, countries like France and Japan continued to install nuclear plants, while on the other hand Italy abandoned its nuclear program and gradually decommissioned all of its plants (NEA, 2007). What is evaluated here, is the conditions configuring the future. Although in a global level, nuclear capacity did stagnate, this was not the case for every country. Depending on each nations needs, requirements and obligations, a different energy policy may be drawn. If not properly weighing these factors in the forecasting process, the outcome cannot be valid. Based on s 5.1 and 5.2, one may also note the lead time of both the international community and the selected countries. Regarding the response of the world as a whole, a period of 3 to 4 years is to be considered for the international community to perform the actions concerned with the decision of cutting back on nuclears. As already noted, a varying response time met in different countries may be partially ascribed to the distance range from the area of the accident. However, a bundle of parameters should be evaluated in order to explain and predict each actors wishes, obligations and decisions. Moreover, when investigating the long term evolution of nuclear power, one should also consider the factor of a rapidly changing environment. Since the Chernobyl accident and the stagnation of nuclear power occurred, any attempt to reestablish previous growth rates has to deal with competitors such as the galloping natural gas market, the return of the coal sector and the maturity of renewable energy technologies (Lovins, 2005). Besides, the considerations regarding waste management, decommissioning expenses and the risk of a new Chernobyl still remain strong. PART B-Introduction Europe becoming increasingly dependent on imported amounts of energy is indisputable. According to the estimations of the recent business as usual scenarios (EC, 2007), it is expected that the energy imports dependency of Europe will increase from the present 50% to a total of 65% by 2030. Within this forecast, reliance on imports of natural gas is expected to increase from 57% to 84% while the respective increase for oil imports shall correspond to an additional 11%, i.e. from 82% to 93%. In this context, European countries and Russia hold a strong interdependency bond based on the significant European energy imports of oil and natural gas supplied by Russia. Note that loss of autonomy is always a side effect of an interdependent relationship as the parties are constrained by their need for one another. Gazprom being the largest Russian company and the greatest natural gas exporter in the world (Cedigaz, 2007) constantly raises its share in the European market, with the respective volume of natural gas supplies reaching 161.5 billion cubic meters during 2006 (Gazprom, 2007), equal to approximately 26% of the total European natural gas needs. Being also Russias single natural gas exporter (according to the Federal Law on Natural Gas Exports adopted in July 2006), Gazprom alone utilizes the existing natural gas pipelines in order to supply Europe (see also Appendix, Existing Natural Gas Pipelines). Meanwhile a series of recent and past events mainly suggesting disputes with Ukraine and Belarus (Bruce, 2005; Stern, 2006) have questioned the security of supply towards Europe, this revealing the potential gaming behavior of the Russians, either to satisfy political purposes or simply take advantage of the energy card in terms of increased pricing. Similar to the 1973 energy crisis and the recent oil price major increases, a scenario concerned with the raise of European natural gas supplies price by Gazprom is to be examined. The scenario supports that unless the desire of Gazprom for a 200% increase of natural gas prices is satisfied, supply towards Europe will be stopped. Question 6 Given the threat of a 200% price increase of natural gas heading towards European countries, an effort is presently carried out in order to investigate the measured responses of both an energy supplier and an energy user being involved in the potential crisis occurrence. Because of the particular features attributed to the subject under investigation, several cases of different energy suppliers and users may be examined. A macroscopic approach may consider two major sides, i.e. the European countries and Gazprom (Russia). However, a closer look focusing on country level and considering organizations as well is thought to be essential in order to better evaluate the situation. As already seen in the previous question concerned with the nuclear power evolution, not all countries responded in the same way to the Chernobyl crisis (NEA, 2007). Working on a country level, energy users will derive from the main Gazprom customers in both Western-Central Europe and the Commonwealth of Indepen dent States (CIS)-Baltic countries (see also Table 6.I). On the other hand, the major energy supplier shall refer to either Gazprom or another natural gas supplier. The alternative of considering different energy sources suppliers will be also outlined. Furthermore, both conservative and more extreme solutions responding to the problem will be considered. Table 6.I: Key s o