Cuban Missle Crisis Essays - CubaUnited States Relations

Cuban Missle Crisis The Cuban Missile Crisis was the closest the world ever came to nuclear war. The United States armed forces were at their highest state of readiness ever and Soviet field commanders in Cuba were prepared to use battlefield nuclear weapons to defend the island if it was invaded. Luckily, thanks to the bravery of two men, President John F. Kennedy and Premier Nikita Khrushchev, war was averted. In 1962, the Soviet Union was desperately behind the United States in the arms race. Soviet missiles were only powerful enough to be launched against Europe but U.S. missiles were capable of striking the entire Soviet Union. In late April 1962, Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev conceived the idea of placing intermediate-range missiles in Cuba. A deployment in Cuba would double the Soviet strategic arsenal and provide a real deterrent to a potential U.S. attack against the Soviet Union. Meanwhile, Fidel Castro was looking for a way to defend his island nation from an attack by the U.S. Ever since the failed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961, Castro felt a second attack was inevitable. Consequently, he approved of Khrushchev's plan to place missiles on the island. In the summer of 1962 the Soviet Union worked quickly and secretly to build its missile installations in Cuba. For the United States, the crisis began on October 15, 1962 whenreconnaissance photographs revealed Soviet missiles under construction in Cuba. Early the next day, President John Kennedy was informed of the missile installations. Kennedy immediately organized the EX-COMM, a group of his twelve most important advisors to handle the crisis. After seven days of guarded and intense debate within the upper echelons of government, Kennedy concluded to impose a naval quarantine around Cuba. He wished to prevent the arrival of more Soviet offensive weapons on the island. On October 22, Kennedy announced the discovery of the missile installations to the public and his decision to quarantine the island. He also proclaimed that any nuclear missile launched from Cuba would be regarded as an attack on the United States by the Soviet Union and demanded that the Soviets remove all of their offensive weapons from Cuba. During the public phase of the Crisis, tensions began to build on both sides. Kennedy eventually ordered low-level reconnaissance missions once every two hours. On the 25th Kennedy pulled the quarantine line back and raised military readiness to DEFCON 2. Then on the 26th EX-COMM heard from Khrushchev in an impassioned letter. He proposed removing Soviet missiles and personnel if the U.S. would guarantee not to invade Cuba. October 27 was the worst day of the crisis. A U-2 was shot down over Cuba and EX-COMM received a second letter from Khrushchev demanding the removal of U.S. missiles in Turkey in exchange for Soviet missiles in Cuba. Attorney General Robert Kennedy suggested ignoring the second letter and contacted Soviet Ambassador Anatoly Dobrynin to tell him of the U.S. agreement with the first. Tensions finally began to ease on October 28 when Khrushchev announced that he would dismantle the installations and return the missiles to the Soviet Union, expressing his trust that the United States would not invade Cuba. Further negotiations were held to implement the October 28 agreement, including a United States demand that Soviet light bombers be removed from Cuba, and specifying the exact form and conditions of United States assurances not to invade Cuba. Bibliography world book encyclopedia- 2000, New York, eletronic encyclopedia History Reports

Living on your own

Living on your own Free Online Research Papers As an adolescent growing up, I learned part of becoming a mature adult is learning how to be self independent. For example, one way to experience self independency is when you attend college away from home and you no longer have the guidance you did in high school. In college, you are no longer in the confinement of your parents’ rules or boundaries. For instance, when you lived at home and your parents might have repeatedly told you to come home by a certain time when you went out: when in college you can come and leave as you please without paying any consequences. Also, while living on a school campus, it is more convenient to get to your classes because you do not have to travel via bus or mass transit to get school to attend your classes. However, while living at home and going to college, commuting will take some time and may cause you to be late or absent for some of your classes. Living at home with your parents can also benefit you financially while going to college. At home, you maybe fortunate to have home cooked meals and your room is already provided for. While living on a college campus, you must pay for a dorm room which is in most cases costly. In addition, the cost of meals on campus in comparison to home is also much more expensive. Also, when living at home as a college freshman, your parents usually provide you with basic necessities on a daily basis and you do not have to pay for it. While this maybe true, when attending college you have the support of those at home but you are required to be more independent as you do not have the ones at home immediately available to provide for you. In conclusion, if you want to become a mature independent adult, you must first learn how to live on your own. College is the perfect experience to test your maturity. Research Papers on Living on your ownPersonal Experience with Teen PregnancyNever Been Kicked Out of a Place This NiceHip-Hop is ArtStandardized Testing19 Century Society: A Deeply Divided EraLifes What IfsThe Effects of Illegal ImmigrationThe Masque of the Red Death Room meaningsHarry Potter and the Deathly Hallows EssayTwilight of the UAW

Definitions and Examples of Copular Verbs

Definitions and Examples of Copular Verbs In English grammar, a copula is a  verb that joins the subject of a sentence  or clause to a subject complement. For example, the word  is  functions as a copula in the sentences Jane  is my friend and Jane is friendly. Adjective: copular. Pronunciation: KOP-u-la. Also known as a copular verb or a linking verb. Contrast with a  lexical verb and a  dynamic verb. The primary verb be is sometimes referred to as the copula. However, while forms of  being  (am, are, is, was, were) are the most commonly used copulas in English, certain other verbs (identified below) have copular functions as well.   Unlike auxiliary verbs (also called helping verbs), which are used in front of other verbs, copular verbs function by themselves in the manner of main verbs. See Examples and Observations below. Also, see: Ascriptive SentenceDouble CopulaLinking VerbStative VerbVerb of BeingZero Copula Etymology From the Latin, link Examples and Observations These two very old people are the father and mother of Mr. Bucket. Their names are Grandpa Joe and Grandma Josephine.(Roald Dahl, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, 1964)The weather is horrible.That car looks fast.The stew smells good.I do feel a fool.She became a racehorse trainer.Its getting late.He spoke intelligently. (Intelligently is an adverb. It tells you about how the person spoke.)He looks intelligent. (Intelligent is an adjective in a predicative position. It tells you about the person himselfrather like saying He is intelligent. The look is a copular verb.)Common CopulasWe use a special kind of verb to join an adjective or noun complement to a subject. These verbs can be called copulas or copular verbs. Common copular verbs are: be, seem, appear, look, sound, smell, taste, feel, become, get.After copular verbs, we use adjectives, not adverbs. Compare: Note that some of these verbs are also used with other meanings as ordinary non-copular verbs.(Michael Swan, Practical Eng lish Usage. Oxford University Press, 1995)A copular (or linking) verb is complemented by a subject predicative in a sentence or clause structure. The most common copular verb is; others include become (my friend), feel (tired), get (ready), seem (happy). A copular prepositional verb is a prepositional verb (combination of a verb plus preposition) that is complemented by a subject predicative: sound like (you), turn into (a monster), serve as (mitigating circumstances).(Sidney Greenbaum, Oxford English Grammar. Oxford University Press, 1996) Describing some kind of state that the thing or person referred to by the subject is in; verbs of this sort include be, remain, seem and appear.Describing the result of some change affecting the thing or person referred to by the subject; verbs of this sort include become, turn, grow and get.Two Main Groups of CopulasCopular verbs fall into two broad groups: Copular verbs can occur in both main and subordinate clauses.James R. Hurford, Grammar: A Students Guide. Cambridge University Press, 1994

Kiss Anyone, Just Not the Gunners Daughter

Kiss Anyone, Just Not the Gunners Daughter Kiss Anyone, Just Not the Gunners Daughter Kiss Anyone, Just Not the Gunners Daughter By Kate Evans A kiss is just a pleasant reminder that two heads are better than one. Unknown Kissing is a very ancient and widely spread means of greeting and showing affection. Kissing conjures up sweet images of romantic embraces or familial love. One imagines kissing a loved one, a child, a family member. Yet apparently, according to these often forgotten, helpful phrases, kissing a book, some dust, or even the foot of a small woodland creature can have a much deeper meaning. For example, a kiss-behind-the-garden-gate is a country name for a pansy. If you kiss the place to make it well, you are referring to the old custom of sucking the poison out of a wound. If you are kissing the dust, you are completely overwhelmed or humiliated. While kissing hands seems fairly straight forward, it harkens back to the tradition of kissing the hand of a sovereign or a saints statue. If the statue was placed too high to kiss directly, people would kiss their own hands and wave it in towards the saint. On a less romantic note, kissing the gunners daughter meant being flogged aboard a ship. Soldiers who were to be flogged were tied to the cannons breech. While there is perhaps less flogging going on these days, the phrase can still refer to a stiff punishment. And finally, if you kiss a hares foot then you are late. You have missed your appointment and the hare hopped by, leaving its footprint for you to see. While one should perhaps steer away from getting flogged, these other colloquialisms might just come in handy. Want to improve your English in five minutes a day? Get a subscription and start receiving our writing tips and exercises daily! Keep learning! Browse the Expressions category, check our popular posts, or choose a related post below:Writing a Reference Letter (With Examples)8 Proofreading Tips And Techniques20 Ways to Cry

Arizona Law Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

Arizona Law - Essay Example I shall use general information about the law and its open discussions as culled from various magazines, newspapers, and journals online in order to help persuade the reader to rethink their position should they be in full support of the law. After all, every law is subject to political discussion. Those who support the controversial law do so on the basis that the senators and other politicians in Washington are incapable of passing effective anti-immigration laws. That is why the state of Arizona has chosen to enforce its own version of an anti-immigration law. After all, who better to know the effects of illegal immigration into their state than the state politicians? They are familiar with the immigration problem of their state and therefore, should be the most authoritative when it comes to finding methods of keeping these illegal immigrants out of the country. Let us not forget the most important aspect of anti-immigration law enforcement, it must be based upon a law that was p assed by consensus on a national level over at the Capitol. The enforcement of the nitty gritty points of the law is the responsibility of those deputized by the national senate. The budget for anti-immigration law enforcement is also worked into the country's budget every year. But under the Arizona anti-immigration law, the budget for enforcing the law as stated in SB 1070 should come from the federal government. Under no circumstances should the enactment of such laws be done under the supervision and authority of the state under a localized anti-immigration law. (Navarette Jr., Ruben â€Å"The Truth About Arizona's Anti-immigration Law†) If Arizona is allowed to breakaway from the law as defined by Washington, then all the other states must be given the same freedom to enforce their anti-immigration laws. There is also the local and national economic and agricultural aspect to consider at the moment while the law is in effect. Although it is true that Washington has a har d time coming up with a cohesive anti-immigration plan that both sides of the political spectrum can get aboard on, they have to first consider the local economy and workforce of the state before passing such laws. These state legislators seem to have forgotten that the reason that illegal immigrants proliferate in the state is because there are jobs to be had. Jobs that our fellow Americans frown upon or refuse to do under the scorching heat of the sun. (Kain, Erick â€Å"Why Arizona's Controversial Immigration Law is Bad for Business†) Without these illegal immigrants to do the job without complain, is there anyone else who would willingly come forward to do those menial jobs? Let's face it, only the migrant workers who work illegally in the country would be willing to do those jobs in exchange for far less than they should actually be paid One of the key points that is being addressed as an explosive issue when it comes to the enforcement of this bill is that certain secto rs of society believe that the law will encourage racial profiling. The belief stems from the fact that the law is far too broad and open to interpretation that those enforcing it will not have any qualms about asking for citizenship identification papers because he is exposed to various races every â€Å"single day of his working life. It is believed that SB 1070, in its original content may : ...unlawfully

Criminal Justice Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words - 8

Criminal Justice - Essay Example 1) Thus, criminal facility as well as study on crime is important to bring reduction to the crime rate. The evolution of prison is not known yet but the word prison is a Latin word meaning â€Å"to seize†. Prisons of ancient times were different than that of today. Those prisons were for a short period of time and included harsh punishments. (Albanese & Dammer, 2010) Today, the concept of prison has changed to correctional facility. The main purpose of a correction facility is to bring a change in the personality of the prisoners. As once they complete their jail time period they must come out they should live as a civilized citizen not as a criminal. A modern correctional facility should fulfill this requirement. According to me the punishment period should be more of a realization period of one’s bad deeds. A prison should not be jail but an institution. Although there are serious offenders of crime, they should b kept in separate floors and must be treated physiologically as well to overcome their state of mind. The building of a facility must be vast and spacious. A rectangular building with concrete as building component of the facility, as it is durable and secure. For security reason the number of guards must me double than that of inmates, to help in emergency situations. It must have sports and recreational activities for the inm ates. One cell should accommodate two inmates. All inmates must be in black and white striped jumpsuits, wearing their identity cards all the time to ensure their identity. Along with all this a good administration is also necessary for a proper working of a correctional facility. Keeping in mind the rights and needs of inmates, strict policies and practices should be avoided to alleviate the conditions of a prison. Jones, M., & johnsons, P. (2011).  History of crime justice. (5th ed., p. 1). Elsevier. Retrieved from

Hw Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Hw - Assignment Example Growth in a company creates an important, enthusiastic corporation where individuals see genuine opportunity. At the same time, the management must be careful not to solely make growth its main objective but rather should focus on profitable growth. The main responsibility of marketing is to achieve profitable growth for the company. Marketing must recognize, evaluate and select market opportunities and strategize on how to achieve things. Product-market expansion grid is one of the devices for identifying growth opportunities. There are four strategies one for each and every quadrant in the grid (Yim Hee: 76). The grid has two dimensions which are product and market dimensions. Four growth strategies can be formed from these two dimensions. They include: This is a risky strategy this is because there is inadequate scope for utilizing current expertise or realizing economies of scale especially when you are trying to sell entirely different services or products to different customers. Its main strength is that one business is unlikely to be affected incase one business suffer from adverse circumstances (Yim Hee:

Different Approaches to The Ways That Gender Affects Language Use Essay

Different Approaches to The Ways That Gender Affects Language Use - Essay Example This research will begin with the statement that Ã' ommunication is a significant in the daily life of an individual. It is important that information is relayed within the shortest time possible and is as precise as possible. However, distortions can often occur, mainly due to differences in culture and gender. The gender difference is a factor that affects communication to a significant degree. It is common knowledge that men and women communicate differently. Whereas men are not so open to their conversation, women are generally talkative and will express their feelings through various ways including crying, laughing or just through various body languages. However, these factors cannot resonate across all populations. Several authors on the topic suggest that factors such as family backgrounds, the schools attended, early childhood life, and exposure can always predispose an individual to communicate or react differently. Today, most people accept the fact that gender affects how people communicate; women and men communicate in different ways. The differences can pose interpersonal interaction challenges, therefore, leading to resentment, intolerance, decreased productivity and stress. Women and men are said to belong to two cultures mainly due to their differences in sex and early childhood tendencies to the group as boys and girls. This tendency is not only critical in the business setting, but in everyday life. It is, therefore, important that the differences are understood so that communication can be as effective as possible, irrespective of gender.

What are the key differences between human speech and other animal Essay

What are the key differences between human speech and other animal vocal communication systems - Essay Example The approaches to observing and studying animal vocal communication have been changed in methodology. The studies of animal vocal communication have often gone from an informational approach to one attempting to understand an evolutionary process of animal vocal communication. In 1987, researchers of animal vocal communication collaborated and researched concerning theories that encompass concepts of animal vocal communication. The Game Theory, an analysis of the animal vocal communication studies, includes data and descriptions that analyze the frequency dependence of animal vocal communications in a given or observed setting. The Game Theory reveals or delves into the data research that an animal’s behavior – including their vocal communication systems – depends upon the frequency in which the animal appears and/or is present within the animal’s setting, environment or population. The Game Theory which includes how often or the frequency in which the voc al or sound systems of the animal are heard within their population or environment, also deals with topics of adaptations of the specific animal species and the vocal structures of the specific animal species. Animal vocal communication systems include that of the following species: Fish, Turtles, Bird species -- Sparrows -- Humming birds -- Morning doves -- Mocking birds -- Stellar blue jay.Human Vocal Communication Systems Language of humans is entirely different from that of other animal communication. The difference lies in the distinct properties of human language – the linguistics – which makes it different from any other non-human animal communication. The human language, from which dialogue and discourse, our meaningful conversations are formulated, has alphabets which help humans â€Å"to write down language and preserve ideas for coming generations. Animal vocal communication is context or environment bound. Non-human species can not communicate any experien ce of past†¦ non-human species communication is biologically transmitted, thus it can not learn any other languages†. (Johnson 3). A significant difference between human and non-human species of animals is often the interconnections between human linguistics and basis of knowledge and learning. A bird, for example, may somehow imitate human utterances; however the bird is reiterating the words without any grasp of meaning, knowledge or purpose of learning more words. With bird species, learning of words gets erased. Human beings have the unique linguistic skills of creating or constructing sounds into a form of communication that enables the human species to respond in certain ways. The communication-response systems and mechanisms of the human animal is one that is vital to the species. Differences Between Human and Animal Vocal Communication â€Å"Language is an invaluable possession of human race. Man (the human species) is clearly distinguished from other species by the capacity of using language† (Johnson 1). Human beings have an organized system of languages, linguistics, that exist and are practiced around the world. As seen with non-human animals, vocal communication methods are not organized or planned. According to linguistics researcher, Jose Johnson (2012), â€Å"†¦human language is entirely different, biologically and culturally†. The Human Language It is the human language and the development of human language that is recognized as the most effective method of human communication. The terminology, â€Å"language†, is derived from the Latin word lingua, meaning tongue. Human language is an organized form or method of communication that is often used to construct meaningful and purposeful response networks that help in the significant development of human culture. â€Å"Human language is an open entity, new words or meanings may often emerge or come into use as a result of

Criticism on the Novel Essay Example for Free

Criticism on the Novel Essay Nature setting are explicit Page 30: When I was about fifteen years old we had retired to our house near Belrive, when we witnessed a most violent and terrible thunderstorm. It advanced from behind the mountains of Jura, and the thunder burst at once with frightful loudness from various quarters of the heavens. I remained with curiosity and delight. As I stood at the door, on a beautiful oak which stood about twenty yards from our house; and so soon as the dazzling light vanished, the oak had disappeared, and nothing remained but a blasted stump. [] It was not splintered from the shock, but entirely reduced to thin ribbons of wood. Foreshadowing?: power of electricity sparks his attention, if it can destroy something so quickly, why cant it bring dead flesh to life? Scientific descriptions lack important information Page 48: It was already one in the morning; the rain pattered dismally against the panes, and my candle was nearly burnt out, when, by the glimmer of the half-extinguished light, I saw the dull yellow eye of the creature open; it breathed hard, and a convulsive motion agitated its limbs. We see how she was a poet in this quote: she gives more descriptions of the surroundings than the scientific aspect of which many people long for. Obviously shows the lack of knowledge displayed by Mary Shelly. Countries are close together Shows once again how much knowledge Mary Shelly had regarding geography. It sparks attention when she says that it takes longer to go from Geneva to Ingolstadt (a total of 413.6 miles) than it is to go to England. Monster has superhuman abilities yet he is made from human parts Page 70: I thought of pursuing the devil, but it would have been in vain, for another flash discovered him to me hanging among the rocks of the nearly perpendicular ascent of Mont Saleve, a hill that bounds Plainpalais on the south. He soon reached the summit and disappeared. Stereotyping of the Turkish and Irish people If Frankenstein had already created a monster, why did he need help from some other scientists for the creation of another monster? Page 153: I found that I could not compose a female without again devoting several months to profound study and laborious disquisition. I had heard of some discoveries having been made by an English philosopher, he knowledge of which was material to my success [] The Monster tells Frankenstein how hes survived mobs throwing rocks and several other projectiles and such, yet Frankenstein never stops trying to think he can kill the monster. Page 206: [] the monster whom I had created, the miserable demon whom I had sent abroad into the world for my destruction. I was possessed by a maddening rage when I thought of him, and desired and ardently prayed that I might have him within my grasp to wreak a great and signal revenge on his cursed head. All quotes from Mary Shelleys Frankenstein

Price Forecasts for Oil

Price Forecasts for Oil â€Å"TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING CRISIS ANALYSIS† Technology Futures Business Strategy 1st Assessment Project PART ONE Michel Godet indicated that qualitative parameters were important in accurate forecasting. Using the available information in the international literature and between 1000 and 1500 words: 1. Mention the qualitative parameters that may be considered in future energy price scenarios. For this purpose take the year 2020 and list, with a brief explanation, the parameters you consider should be included. 2. Which of these parameters can you reasonably quantify? (Attempt to identify at least five parameters) 3. Do you agree with this specific aspect of Godets proposition? Why or why not? 4. Evaluate a crisis impact of the accuracy of technology forecasting. Identify the parameters characterizing the crisis aspects. Accordingly, present your opinion about the validity of the forecasts. 5. Using the installed nuclear power data between 1967 and 1987 estimate (using extrapolation techniques) the expected nuclear power time evolution between 1987 and 2007. Comment on the accuracy of your forecasts in relation with the real data. Can you mention any lead time between the major accident of Chernobyl and the reaction of the international electrical power market? PART TWO The OPEC oil price rise in 1973 had an important effect on energy use and energy efficiency, although much of the impact was short-lived. In 2003-4 the oil price effectively doubled, reaching $50/barrel for a period and lately it has reached over $90/barrel. A major player now is Gazprom in Russia News has broken that Gazprom will cut supplies of natural gas to Europe unless it is allowed to raise prices by 200% for export customers, (Customers in Russia historically pay much lower prices). Using the available information in the international literature and between 2000 and 2500 words: 6. Describe your measured response to this, as either an energy Supplier or major energy user. 7. Would you say that your response was based upon â€Å"out of the box† solutions, or a more conservative, incremental approach? 8. Discuss the relative merits and limitations of each of these possible responses, identifying what you believe the two approaches mean. 9. How this crisis shall influence the future of European economies? How could these effects been mitigated? Make your own forecasts. Your answers to 6-8 above are based upon assumed positions within organisations which may employ many people. The next part of this question relates to the impact rising energy prices and, perhaps more importantly, the effect of climate change, may have on your own style of living. 10. At a personal/domestic level, can you foresee a situation in which we may consider that for the benefit of all, we may need to make do with less, in terms of capital goods, travel, and perceived acceptable levels of comfort? Technology Futures Business Strategy 1st Assessment Project PART A-Introduction Based on the Prospective approach and the scenarios method (Godet, 1982), Michel Godet noted the limitations of the classical forecasting concerned with quantification and models (see also Appendix, Table Ap.I). According to Godet, models that only consider quantified parameters do not take into account the development of new relationships and the possible changes in trends. The impossibility of forecasting the future as a function solely of past data is directly related to the omission of qualitative and non-quantifiable parameters such as the wishes and behaviour of relevant actors (Godet, 1982). Furthermore, to structure future scenarios, the variables related to the phenomenon under investigation and the variables configuring its environment should be recognized and analyzed in detail. Besides, the interrelationship among variables, the relative power and fundamental actors, their strategies and available resources as well as the objectives and constraints that must be overcome, should also be taken into account. By granting energy as a commodity under the view of conventional economic theories, markets and price mechanisms are used in order to allocate the respective resources. More specifically, it is the interaction of demand and supply in the markets that allocates resources and largely shapes prices, and it is the broader ecosystem boundaries that these market interactions take place in. Energy pricing, with energy being perceived either as an input or as a potentially polluting source of our ecosystem, clearly stands upon both the sub disciplines of resource and environmental economics (Sweeney, 2004), also depending on the social, political and technological status of the time being and the time to come until 2020. In this context, one may acknowledge a bundle of parameters that may be considered for configuring the respective future energy price scenarios. What is important to note is that similar to the beliefs of Godet, the parameters involved should be studied in terms of interrela tionship, while qualitative and non quantified parameters should be taken into account as well. Question 1 As already mentioned, the configuration of prices within a market -the energy market currently discussed- is largely dependent on the supply and demand balance. This is measured by the respective supply and demand tension expressing the status of a commodity in market terms and providing indications concerning potential energy price changes. While high tensions imply prices imbalance, the opposite is valid for low tension rates. Hence, in order to evaluate future energy prices on the basis of parameters, one should identify the parameters that influence the supply-demand balance in every of the fields previously acknowledged (i.e. social, political, environmental, economical and technological). In this context, in 1.1 the most influential of the parameters configuring energy prices may be encountered. Energy markets are largely influenced by the economic growth factors expressed on the basis of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, interest and unemployment rates. Given the economic growth along with the parameter of demographics (regarding both the population increase and migrations) one may picture the corresponding trend in energy consumption (i.e. the demand side). Following, policy decisions concerning the determination of fuel mix are determinative as far as energy pricing is considered. For instance, fossil fuels continuing to dominate will stimulate stricter pollution prevention legislation measures (e.g. taxation) and policies for tackling climate change and global warming that will raise energy prices. In parallel, the reinforcement of the respective market holders, potentially leading to strong monopolies, should also be expected. Turning to renewable energy sources may on the one hand -for some of the technologies- imply an adjustment period in order for the corresponding markets to balance and on the other entail significant environmental benefits, in monetary terms as well. Global warming and climate change effects being evident supports the implementation of mitigation measures towards the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this holding a key role in respect of the future. Reserves holding a key role in the future configuration of energy prices not only in terms of scarcity, but also in terms of production costs is directly related with the technological development concerning the exploitation of new deposits and the promotion of substitutes. As already implied, the power of existing markets is another key factor while the efficiency and absorption of energy investments -the investment shares and outcomes of research and development efforts should be underlined- must be also taken into account. The factors concerned with the quality of life suggest an additional parameter that may affect energy consumption patterns and one that cannot be easily captured despite of the indices recommended so far (Allen, 1991). Moreover, as properly put in the Annual Energy Outlook of 2007 (EIA, 2007a), energy markets projections are subject to much uncertainty (unanticipated events). Many of the events that shape energy markets and therefore the price of energy as well cannot be foreseen. These include unexpected weather events and natural disasters (Rezek and Blair, 2008), major innovations and technological breakthroughs (Marbà ¡n and Valdà ©s-Solà ­s, 2007; Varandas, 2008), disruptions and whirls in the political level (Stern, 2006) with analogous societal consequences, the outbreak of a war (Tahmassebi, 1986; Fernandez, 2008) or a nuclear accident, all of them either smouldering or implying blind spots that cannot be directly projected and consequently quantified. Besides, another area of uncertainty is concerned with the fact that even the established trends steady evolution cannot be guaranteed. Summarizing, a brief explanation was presently given on how each of the parameters acknowledged may influence energy pricing. Additionally, an effort was also carried out in order to give a short description of the interrelationship among parameters, this supporting one of Godets arguments. Insisting on the interrelationship of variables, several of the parameters previously encountered should be diffused to every major regional energy market, the latter being largely influenced by the relationship between fuel types and energy sectors (see also 1.2). Eventually, one may result in a rather complex system that encounters the evolution of influential parameters inside the balance between energy types and energy sectors, this revealing the crucial role of energy fuel mix previously discussed. Following, an effort is carried out in order to reasonably quantify some of the parameters acknowledged. Question 2 Given the bundle of parameters that are thought to influence future energy pricing, a certain number of them can be quantified. For instance, the parameters of population, economic growth, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, energy reserves, and energy fuel mix can be expressed in numerical terms. Demographic growth examines how regional and global demography changes over time. According to the United Nations projections (UN, 2006), world population will increase by over 1 billion people in the years to come until 2020, this suggesting an annual increase rate of 1.1%. While in some areas there is a negative population growth to be considered (e.g. European countries), the opposite may be encountered for some of the Asian countries (e.g. India) where overpopulation is met (see for example 2.1 with EIA forecasts). Besides, the migration of people comprises an additional factor influencing energy patterns via the imposition of unequal population distribution already encountered due to birth and mortality rates. Based on the energy consumption trends ( 2.2), it is expected that energy demand related to all energy products will increase in the years to come, even in such levels that supply may not be able to adequately respond (Asif and Muneer, 2007). In fact, the annual world energy consumption growth is approximately 2% with projections supporting future average rates of 1.1% per annum (EIA, 2007b). In fact, by considering the two of parameters so far examined one may result in the most substantial energy per cap index, clearly establishing the differentiation in energy consumption patterns among world regions (see also question 10). Furthermore, according to the WEO claims (WEC, 2007) that energy generated from fossil fuels will remain the main energy source (expected to cover almost 83% of global energy demand in 2030) and given the 2020 time horizon, much depends on the appearing constraints of world energy reserves, especially those regarding oil and natural gas. While certain studies sound relieving (WCI, 2007), others questioning the extent of increase in the production outputs ring the alarm of forthcoming peaks within the next one or two decades (Bentley, 2002). If the latter is valid, the corresponding demand will not be met, prices will rise, inflation, and international tension will become very likely to occur, and inevitably energy users will have to ration (Wirl, 2008). Overall, what the combination of energy mix with energy reserves provides is the measuring of security of supply, the latter configuring the supply and demand tensions, largely shaping energy prices. Besides, targets set in respect of renewable energy sources further penetration also provide a quantification view; e.g. the EWEA target for 22% coverage of the European electricity consumption by 2030 (EWEA, 2006). Next, expressing economic growth on the basis of gross domestic product (GDP) suggests a constant increase of the former within the range of an average 3% to 4% per year (IMF, 2004), noted during the period from 1970 to 2003. Again, inequity that is to be considered among different world regions is directly related with the previous parameters, illustrating the energy requirements variation. A characteristic example considers China demonstrating an average annual percent change of GDP 2.4% greater than the world average. In 2.3, the respective trends of GDP growth up to the year 2020 may be obtained. Finally, the environmental impact of energy use being expressed on the basis of GHG emissions not only considers the fuel mix and energy consumption but also takes into account the technology used for energy generation. Taking CO2, an increase of 17Gt in a 34 years period, i.e. from 1970 to 2004 (IPCC, 2007), indicates the strong increasing trend, also presented in 2.4. Given also some of the commitments adopted in order to mitigate the greenhouse effect however (e.g. the Kyoto protocol), further quantification, not relying solely on past trends, is possible. The stimulation of additional mitigation measures until 2020 is rather likely, this both imposing the need for shifting to non-fossil fuels and developing cleaner energy generation technologies. Considering the various parameters trends illustrated above, one may sense that the tensions between supply and demand, this comprising the main driver for energy prices, are going to rise. Energy consumption, GDP and population rates on one hand demonstrate the demand side, while declining reserves and mitigation measures describe the opposite supply side. In between, the decisions for future energy fuel mix patterns, although able to completely reverse the energy markets status quo, are not thought to radically vary within the next 10 to 15 years. Hence, unless some major changes occur, the rising tensions between supply and demand imply both instability and increase of prices on a global level with strong differentiation to be encountered among different world regions. As far as the degree of energy price variation is concerned, the implementation of forecasting may both incorporate all of the pre-mentioned parameters and provide various scenarios considering each ones expected fu ture time evolution. Question 3 As previously seen, several parameters were acknowledged in order to form future energy price scenarios. While some of them were possible to quantify, others although not quantified were equally important inputs to keep in mind. Apart from the given inaccuracy of data (either high or low levelled) coupled with unstable models and the pertinacity of explaining the future in terms of the past, Godet emphasizes on the lack of a global and qualitative approach concerned with forecasting (Godet, 1982). Although quantitative methods may prove to be reliable enough and reasonably accurate for short term forecasts, the same is not valid for forecasts concerned with longer periods. The greater the distance from the reference point, the more obvious is the inability of quantitative data to provide valid forecasts (see also 3.1). In this context, it is critical to comment on the relativity of time scales noted among the study of various phenomena. Hence, what may seem short termed for one phenomenon studied may actually comprise a long period forecast for another that appears to be rapidly changing over time. Any case given, the chances of significant changes regarding the environment in which the phenomenon under study develops are considerably higher as the time horizon becomes longer and it would be more or less naà ¯ve to solely depend on forecasting methods like the extrapolation of trends. Furthermore, the complexity of phenomena studied and the interdependence among the influencing parameters calls for the inclusion of both quantitative and qualitative parameters with Godet clearly addressing the complementarity between the prospective and classical forecasting (Godet, 1982). It was in fact during the first section of this part that the analysis of energy pricing configuration revealed the importance of interaction between quantitative and qualitative parameters. Energy price could not be disengaged from the parallel evolvement of parameters that even though not easily quantified, do structure the phenomenon environment (e.g. political, technological, economic, social, legal and other aspects). What must be outlined here is that similar to the scaling of decision making (strategic-long term, innovative-medium term, operational-short term), the role of quantitative data is gradually fading out as we tend to conceptualize the entire phenomenon environment. Hence the bro ader the view, again the more obvious is the inability of quantitative data to support a reliable forecasting (see also 2.1). Although in its extreme point of view, Godets proposition perfectly fits the ability of diagnosing forthcoming crises. Already extremely difficult to predict a crisis, omitting parameters such as the wishes of relevant actors and other influential factors that cannot be quantified makes it impossible even to sense it. It is in this context that one should not disregard the importance of other forecasting resources -apart from data- including assumptions, insight and judgment, all of them involving the subjectivity factor. If managing to get over the reef of the NIH syndrome, creativity and broad minded thinking are also essential elements for good forecasting. Question 4 1973 may be granted as the most pivotal year in energy history. The energy crisis defining the period began on October 17, 1973, when the Arab members of OPEC along with Egypt and Syria, all together comprising OAPEC, decided to place an embargo on shipments of crude oil to nations that had supported Israel in its conflict with Syria and Egypt, mainly targeting at the United States and Netherlands. The result of this decision also brought about major oil price increases. Because of the fact that OPEC was the dominant oil distributor at the time, the price increase implied serious impacts on the national economies of the targeted countries, therefore suggesting an international range crisis. Although the embargo was lifted in March 1974, the effects of the energy crisis, mainly in terms of price increase, lingered on throughout the 1970s, with the Iranian crisis aggravating the situation (see also 4.1). Suggesting a crisis that was mainly expressed on the basis of high energy pricing, the outcome of the previous questions concerned with the determination of energy price influential parameters may be illustrated. In fact, the impact of a more or less unanticipated event changed the correlation patterns between supply and demand and imposed the attachment of high tensions in the market balance, the latter entailing the high volatility of oil price and its potential outburst ever since (Regnier, 2007). The market structures, the dominance of OPEC and the political tension, all suggest aspects of the crisis illustrating the importance of considering qualitative parameters as well. As Godet well pointed out, one cannot neglect the wishes and decisions of major actors when configuring the future (e.g. OPEC members). Similar to the 1973 oil crisis, the California energy crisis occurring some 27 years later also revealed the strength of key actors in completely changing what was meant to follow a past trend or ameliorate a past situation. The deregulation of the electricity market in California (during 1998) targeting to decrease the highest of retail prices among the States turned into a complete fiasco that abetted the manipulation of the market by the energy companies. The crisis main characteristics involved very high wholesale prices, interrupted service of customers (rolling blackouts), bankrupt utilities and huge state expenditures, while the crisis main causes were: The lack of new generating capacity inside California (California was heavily dependent on energy imports from nearby states (CEC, 2007a)). The coincidence of a dry year and natural gas spikes with other market oriented factors (California was largely based on hydro and natural gas for the consumers electrification). The market structure allowing generators to manipulate wholesale prices in the power exchange market through escalating power plants outages that caused market disorder (on the other hand there was a retail price cap that did not allow the investor owned utilities to pass the increasing cost of wholesale purchases to consumers). The delay and inability of the regulators to predict the crisis and respond to it (it was only after a certain time that a wholesale cap was set by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and an increase of retail prices was allowed to the investor owned utilities). Emphasizing on the manipulation of the market by the energy generators, in 4.2 one may observe the out of schedule power plant outages rapid increase during the period of the crisis, even exceeding 10GW (approximately 20% of the total installed capacity), responsible for three series of rolling blackouts. No prediction could have captured the 300% and 400% increases of power plants outages. The analogous increase in wholesale prices being the result of the appearing power deficit caused the major suppliers (3 major investor utilities (IOUs)) to be trapped between remarkable wholesale price increases and a fixed retail price (see 4.3). Further, as seen in 4.3, in the early days of deregulation a relatively smooth trend was to be encountered as far as the wholesale market prices are concerned, this also not implying the rapid increase of prices following. Accordingly, although not influenced to the same extent that the IOUs were, the instant impact to the final consumers must also be considered. Note that according to the rough forecast of retail electricity prices -being based on the respective past data- the increase of retail prices was not to be expected either because deregulation promised for a lowering of prices or because the trend applied entailed much lower prices then the ones actually presented at the time (see also 4.4). Similar to this, predictions involving oil pricing before the 1973 crisis and relying on extrapolation techniques (Anon, 1973) expected that world energy consumption would keep up in the increasing rates of 5% up to 2000. If having managed to somehow foresee the 1973 oil price increase, the predictions made would not be exclusively based on the past data trend that would undoubtedly provide a misjudgement of future prices (see also 4.5). What actually followed for the years to come (1980 to 2000) was a 20 years mean annual increase rate of 1.7%. Furthermore, if only having used quantitative data, none could have predicted before the crisis that USA would cut back on oil use. In , 4.6 the response of the USA to the crisis effect reveals the review of energy patterns issued by the government for the times to come. What is also interesting to note in the is the lead time in order to adapt to the new situation encountered (e.g. the natural gas contribution share started increasing 5 year s after the crisis). Another critical point concerning the weaknesses of forecasting previous to crises, not related to the use of numerical past data, may be met in the case of California. Once the regulators and the state adopted a deregulation system that was elsewhere applied successfully (Woo et al., 2003), they decided to proceed in certain modifications (i.e. partial deregulation and imposition of retail price caps) without bothering to consider the different characteristics, features and conditions of operation encountered in the California environment. Hence what might have been thought as successful elsewhere would not be a priori successful in California as well. Finally, if the modification of market structures and potential manipulations had been taken into account via the implementation of alternative scenarios assessing the risk of deregulating the Californian electricity market, certain versatile mechanisms that would instantly respond to a potential crisis may have been put forward. From the analysis provided it becomes clear that forecasting methods that solely rely on past data trends, disregard the wishes of relevant actors and major players, and do not consider the conditions forming the environment where the phenomenon develops cannot capture a broader view of the situation and thus give valid predictions. Question 5 As already addressed, the limited ability of quantitative parameters and extrapolation techniques to provide a valid forecasting, especially in the case where a crisis was to follow, is indisputable. To validate the conclusion made and further support Godets beliefs an example is presently given. Using the installed nuclear power data between 1967 and 1987 along with the application of extrapolation techniques (the forecast function is currently used) one may present the expected nuclear capacity time evolution for the next twenty years. A straightforward comparison of the extrapolation s with the respective real data for the period 1987 to 2007 is available in 5.1. What of course cannot be captured by the extrapolation technique is the Chernobyl crisis, deeply influencing any further development of the nuclear installations. It was on the 26th of April 1986 that reactor number four at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, located in Ukraine exploded. By considering the magnitude of consequences that the Chernobyl accident entailed (UNDP UNICEF, 2002), one may easily realize the cut back of nuclear capacity in the years to come. Furthermore, what is interesting to note is the different influence that the Chernobyl accident had in countries around the world. In 5.2 one may see the immediate response of the Russians, the Germans and the Ukrainians, while it took a little longer for the USA to reconsider its nuclear program. On the contrary, countries like France and Japan continued to install nuclear plants, while on the other hand Italy abandoned its nuclear program and gradually decommissioned all of its plants (NEA, 2007). What is evaluated here, is the conditions configuring the future. Although in a global level, nuclear capacity did stagnate, this was not the case for every country. Depending on each nations needs, requirements and obligations, a different energy policy may be drawn. If not properly weighing these factors in the forecasting process, the outcome cannot be valid. Based on s 5.1 and 5.2, one may also note the lead time of both the international community and the selected countries. Regarding the response of the world as a whole, a period of 3 to 4 years is to be considered for the international community to perform the actions concerned with the decision of cutting back on nuclears. As already noted, a varying response time met in different countries may be partially ascribed to the distance range from the area of the accident. However, a bundle of parameters should be evaluated in order to explain and predict each actors wishes, obligations and decisions. Moreover, when investigating the long term evolution of nuclear power, one should also consider the factor of a rapidly changing environment. Since the Chernobyl accident and the stagnation of nuclear power occurred, any attempt to reestablish previous growth rates has to deal with competitors such as the galloping natural gas market, the return of the coal sector and the maturity of renewable energy technologies (Lovins, 2005). Besides, the considerations regarding waste management, decommissioning expenses and the risk of a new Chernobyl still remain strong. PART B-Introduction Europe becoming increasingly dependent on imported amounts of energy is indisputable. According to the estimations of the recent business as usual scenarios (EC, 2007), it is expected that the energy imports dependency of Europe will increase from the present 50% to a total of 65% by 2030. Within this forecast, reliance on imports of natural gas is expected to increase from 57% to 84% while the respective increase for oil imports shall correspond to an additional 11%, i.e. from 82% to 93%. In this context, European countries and Russia hold a strong interdependency bond based on the significant European energy imports of oil and natural gas supplied by Russia. Note that loss of autonomy is always a side effect of an interdependent relationship as the parties are constrained by their need for one another. Gazprom being the largest Russian company and the greatest natural gas exporter in the world (Cedigaz, 2007) constantly raises its share in the European market, with the respective volume of natural gas supplies reaching 161.5 billion cubic meters during 2006 (Gazprom, 2007), equal to approximately 26% of the total European natural gas needs. Being also Russias single natural gas exporter (according to the Federal Law on Natural Gas Exports adopted in July 2006), Gazprom alone utilizes the existing natural gas pipelines in order to supply Europe (see also Appendix, Existing Natural Gas Pipelines). Meanwhile a series of recent and past events mainly suggesting disputes with Ukraine and Belarus (Bruce, 2005; Stern, 2006) have questioned the security of supply towards Europe, this revealing the potential gaming behavior of the Russians, either to satisfy political purposes or simply take advantage of the energy card in terms of increased pricing. Similar to the 1973 energy crisis and the recent oil price major increases, a scenario concerned with the raise of European natural gas supplies price by Gazprom is to be examined. The scenario supports that unless the desire of Gazprom for a 200% increase of natural gas prices is satisfied, supply towards Europe will be stopped. Question 6 Given the threat of a 200% price increase of natural gas heading towards European countries, an effort is presently carried out in order to investigate the measured responses of both an energy supplier and an energy user being involved in the potential crisis occurrence. Because of the particular features attributed to the subject under investigation, several cases of different energy suppliers and users may be examined. A macroscopic approach may consider two major sides, i.e. the European countries and Gazprom (Russia). However, a closer look focusing on country level and considering organizations as well is thought to be essential in order to better evaluate the situation. As already seen in the previous question concerned with the nuclear power evolution, not all countries responded in the same way to the Chernobyl crisis (NEA, 2007). Working on a country level, energy users will derive from the main Gazprom customers in both Western-Central Europe and the Commonwealth of Indepen dent States (CIS)-Baltic countries (see also Table 6.I). On the other hand, the major energy supplier shall refer to either Gazprom or another natural gas supplier. The alternative of considering different energy sources suppliers will be also outlined. Furthermore, both conservative and more extreme solutions responding to the problem will be considered. Table 6.I: Key s o Price Forecasts for Oil Price Forecasts for Oil â€Å"TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING CRISIS ANALYSIS† Technology Futures Business Strategy 1st Assessment Project PART ONE Michel Godet indicated that qualitative parameters were important in accurate forecasting. Using the available information in the international literature and between 1000 and 1500 words: 1. Mention the qualitative parameters that may be considered in future energy price scenarios. For this purpose take the year 2020 and list, with a brief explanation, the parameters you consider should be included. 2. Which of these parameters can you reasonably quantify? (Attempt to identify at least five parameters) 3. Do you agree with this specific aspect of Godets proposition? Why or why not? 4. Evaluate a crisis impact of the accuracy of technology forecasting. Identify the parameters characterizing the crisis aspects. Accordingly, present your opinion about the validity of the forecasts. 5. Using the installed nuclear power data between 1967 and 1987 estimate (using extrapolation techniques) the expected nuclear power time evolution between 1987 and 2007. Comment on the accuracy of your forecasts in relation with the real data. Can you mention any lead time between the major accident of Chernobyl and the reaction of the international electrical power market? PART TWO The OPEC oil price rise in 1973 had an important effect on energy use and energy efficiency, although much of the impact was short-lived. In 2003-4 the oil price effectively doubled, reaching $50/barrel for a period and lately it has reached over $90/barrel. A major player now is Gazprom in Russia News has broken that Gazprom will cut supplies of natural gas to Europe unless it is allowed to raise prices by 200% for export customers, (Customers in Russia historically pay much lower prices). Using the available information in the international literature and between 2000 and 2500 words: 6. Describe your measured response to this, as either an energy Supplier or major energy user. 7. Would you say that your response was based upon â€Å"out of the box† solutions, or a more conservative, incremental approach? 8. Discuss the relative merits and limitations of each of these possible responses, identifying what you believe the two approaches mean. 9. How this crisis shall influence the future of European economies? How could these effects been mitigated? Make your own forecasts. Your answers to 6-8 above are based upon assumed positions within organisations which may employ many people. The next part of this question relates to the impact rising energy prices and, perhaps more importantly, the effect of climate change, may have on your own style of living. 10. At a personal/domestic level, can you foresee a situation in which we may consider that for the benefit of all, we may need to make do with less, in terms of capital goods, travel, and perceived acceptable levels of comfort? Technology Futures Business Strategy 1st Assessment Project PART A-Introduction Based on the Prospective approach and the scenarios method (Godet, 1982), Michel Godet noted the limitations of the classical forecasting concerned with quantification and models (see also Appendix, Table Ap.I). According to Godet, models that only consider quantified parameters do not take into account the development of new relationships and the possible changes in trends. The impossibility of forecasting the future as a function solely of past data is directly related to the omission of qualitative and non-quantifiable parameters such as the wishes and behaviour of relevant actors (Godet, 1982). Furthermore, to structure future scenarios, the variables related to the phenomenon under investigation and the variables configuring its environment should be recognized and analyzed in detail. Besides, the interrelationship among variables, the relative power and fundamental actors, their strategies and available resources as well as the objectives and constraints that must be overcome, should also be taken into account. By granting energy as a commodity under the view of conventional economic theories, markets and price mechanisms are used in order to allocate the respective resources. More specifically, it is the interaction of demand and supply in the markets that allocates resources and largely shapes prices, and it is the broader ecosystem boundaries that these market interactions take place in. Energy pricing, with energy being perceived either as an input or as a potentially polluting source of our ecosystem, clearly stands upon both the sub disciplines of resource and environmental economics (Sweeney, 2004), also depending on the social, political and technological status of the time being and the time to come until 2020. In this context, one may acknowledge a bundle of parameters that may be considered for configuring the respective future energy price scenarios. What is important to note is that similar to the beliefs of Godet, the parameters involved should be studied in terms of interrela tionship, while qualitative and non quantified parameters should be taken into account as well. Question 1 As already mentioned, the configuration of prices within a market -the energy market currently discussed- is largely dependent on the supply and demand balance. This is measured by the respective supply and demand tension expressing the status of a commodity in market terms and providing indications concerning potential energy price changes. While high tensions imply prices imbalance, the opposite is valid for low tension rates. Hence, in order to evaluate future energy prices on the basis of parameters, one should identify the parameters that influence the supply-demand balance in every of the fields previously acknowledged (i.e. social, political, environmental, economical and technological). In this context, in 1.1 the most influential of the parameters configuring energy prices may be encountered. Energy markets are largely influenced by the economic growth factors expressed on the basis of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, interest and unemployment rates. Given the economic growth along with the parameter of demographics (regarding both the population increase and migrations) one may picture the corresponding trend in energy consumption (i.e. the demand side). Following, policy decisions concerning the determination of fuel mix are determinative as far as energy pricing is considered. For instance, fossil fuels continuing to dominate will stimulate stricter pollution prevention legislation measures (e.g. taxation) and policies for tackling climate change and global warming that will raise energy prices. In parallel, the reinforcement of the respective market holders, potentially leading to strong monopolies, should also be expected. Turning to renewable energy sources may on the one hand -for some of the technologies- imply an adjustment period in order for the corresponding markets to balance and on the other entail significant environmental benefits, in monetary terms as well. Global warming and climate change effects being evident supports the implementation of mitigation measures towards the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this holding a key role in respect of the future. Reserves holding a key role in the future configuration of energy prices not only in terms of scarcity, but also in terms of production costs is directly related with the technological development concerning the exploitation of new deposits and the promotion of substitutes. As already implied, the power of existing markets is another key factor while the efficiency and absorption of energy investments -the investment shares and outcomes of research and development efforts should be underlined- must be also taken into account. The factors concerned with the quality of life suggest an additional parameter that may affect energy consumption patterns and one that cannot be easily captured despite of the indices recommended so far (Allen, 1991). Moreover, as properly put in the Annual Energy Outlook of 2007 (EIA, 2007a), energy markets projections are subject to much uncertainty (unanticipated events). Many of the events that shape energy markets and therefore the price of energy as well cannot be foreseen. These include unexpected weather events and natural disasters (Rezek and Blair, 2008), major innovations and technological breakthroughs (Marbà ¡n and Valdà ©s-Solà ­s, 2007; Varandas, 2008), disruptions and whirls in the political level (Stern, 2006) with analogous societal consequences, the outbreak of a war (Tahmassebi, 1986; Fernandez, 2008) or a nuclear accident, all of them either smouldering or implying blind spots that cannot be directly projected and consequently quantified. Besides, another area of uncertainty is concerned with the fact that even the established trends steady evolution cannot be guaranteed. Summarizing, a brief explanation was presently given on how each of the parameters acknowledged may influence energy pricing. Additionally, an effort was also carried out in order to give a short description of the interrelationship among parameters, this supporting one of Godets arguments. Insisting on the interrelationship of variables, several of the parameters previously encountered should be diffused to every major regional energy market, the latter being largely influenced by the relationship between fuel types and energy sectors (see also 1.2). Eventually, one may result in a rather complex system that encounters the evolution of influential parameters inside the balance between energy types and energy sectors, this revealing the crucial role of energy fuel mix previously discussed. Following, an effort is carried out in order to reasonably quantify some of the parameters acknowledged. Question 2 Given the bundle of parameters that are thought to influence future energy pricing, a certain number of them can be quantified. For instance, the parameters of population, economic growth, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, energy reserves, and energy fuel mix can be expressed in numerical terms. Demographic growth examines how regional and global demography changes over time. According to the United Nations projections (UN, 2006), world population will increase by over 1 billion people in the years to come until 2020, this suggesting an annual increase rate of 1.1%. While in some areas there is a negative population growth to be considered (e.g. European countries), the opposite may be encountered for some of the Asian countries (e.g. India) where overpopulation is met (see for example 2.1 with EIA forecasts). Besides, the migration of people comprises an additional factor influencing energy patterns via the imposition of unequal population distribution already encountered due to birth and mortality rates. Based on the energy consumption trends ( 2.2), it is expected that energy demand related to all energy products will increase in the years to come, even in such levels that supply may not be able to adequately respond (Asif and Muneer, 2007). In fact, the annual world energy consumption growth is approximately 2% with projections supporting future average rates of 1.1% per annum (EIA, 2007b). In fact, by considering the two of parameters so far examined one may result in the most substantial energy per cap index, clearly establishing the differentiation in energy consumption patterns among world regions (see also question 10). Furthermore, according to the WEO claims (WEC, 2007) that energy generated from fossil fuels will remain the main energy source (expected to cover almost 83% of global energy demand in 2030) and given the 2020 time horizon, much depends on the appearing constraints of world energy reserves, especially those regarding oil and natural gas. While certain studies sound relieving (WCI, 2007), others questioning the extent of increase in the production outputs ring the alarm of forthcoming peaks within the next one or two decades (Bentley, 2002). If the latter is valid, the corresponding demand will not be met, prices will rise, inflation, and international tension will become very likely to occur, and inevitably energy users will have to ration (Wirl, 2008). Overall, what the combination of energy mix with energy reserves provides is the measuring of security of supply, the latter configuring the supply and demand tensions, largely shaping energy prices. Besides, targets set in respect of renewable energy sources further penetration also provide a quantification view; e.g. the EWEA target for 22% coverage of the European electricity consumption by 2030 (EWEA, 2006). Next, expressing economic growth on the basis of gross domestic product (GDP) suggests a constant increase of the former within the range of an average 3% to 4% per year (IMF, 2004), noted during the period from 1970 to 2003. Again, inequity that is to be considered among different world regions is directly related with the previous parameters, illustrating the energy requirements variation. A characteristic example considers China demonstrating an average annual percent change of GDP 2.4% greater than the world average. In 2.3, the respective trends of GDP growth up to the year 2020 may be obtained. Finally, the environmental impact of energy use being expressed on the basis of GHG emissions not only considers the fuel mix and energy consumption but also takes into account the technology used for energy generation. Taking CO2, an increase of 17Gt in a 34 years period, i.e. from 1970 to 2004 (IPCC, 2007), indicates the strong increasing trend, also presented in 2.4. Given also some of the commitments adopted in order to mitigate the greenhouse effect however (e.g. the Kyoto protocol), further quantification, not relying solely on past trends, is possible. The stimulation of additional mitigation measures until 2020 is rather likely, this both imposing the need for shifting to non-fossil fuels and developing cleaner energy generation technologies. Considering the various parameters trends illustrated above, one may sense that the tensions between supply and demand, this comprising the main driver for energy prices, are going to rise. Energy consumption, GDP and population rates on one hand demonstrate the demand side, while declining reserves and mitigation measures describe the opposite supply side. In between, the decisions for future energy fuel mix patterns, although able to completely reverse the energy markets status quo, are not thought to radically vary within the next 10 to 15 years. Hence, unless some major changes occur, the rising tensions between supply and demand imply both instability and increase of prices on a global level with strong differentiation to be encountered among different world regions. As far as the degree of energy price variation is concerned, the implementation of forecasting may both incorporate all of the pre-mentioned parameters and provide various scenarios considering each ones expected fu ture time evolution. Question 3 As previously seen, several parameters were acknowledged in order to form future energy price scenarios. While some of them were possible to quantify, others although not quantified were equally important inputs to keep in mind. Apart from the given inaccuracy of data (either high or low levelled) coupled with unstable models and the pertinacity of explaining the future in terms of the past, Godet emphasizes on the lack of a global and qualitative approach concerned with forecasting (Godet, 1982). Although quantitative methods may prove to be reliable enough and reasonably accurate for short term forecasts, the same is not valid for forecasts concerned with longer periods. The greater the distance from the reference point, the more obvious is the inability of quantitative data to provide valid forecasts (see also 3.1). In this context, it is critical to comment on the relativity of time scales noted among the study of various phenomena. Hence, what may seem short termed for one phenomenon studied may actually comprise a long period forecast for another that appears to be rapidly changing over time. Any case given, the chances of significant changes regarding the environment in which the phenomenon under study develops are considerably higher as the time horizon becomes longer and it would be more or less naà ¯ve to solely depend on forecasting methods like the extrapolation of trends. Furthermore, the complexity of phenomena studied and the interdependence among the influencing parameters calls for the inclusion of both quantitative and qualitative parameters with Godet clearly addressing the complementarity between the prospective and classical forecasting (Godet, 1982). It was in fact during the first section of this part that the analysis of energy pricing configuration revealed the importance of interaction between quantitative and qualitative parameters. Energy price could not be disengaged from the parallel evolvement of parameters that even though not easily quantified, do structure the phenomenon environment (e.g. political, technological, economic, social, legal and other aspects). What must be outlined here is that similar to the scaling of decision making (strategic-long term, innovative-medium term, operational-short term), the role of quantitative data is gradually fading out as we tend to conceptualize the entire phenomenon environment. Hence the bro ader the view, again the more obvious is the inability of quantitative data to support a reliable forecasting (see also 2.1). Although in its extreme point of view, Godets proposition perfectly fits the ability of diagnosing forthcoming crises. Already extremely difficult to predict a crisis, omitting parameters such as the wishes of relevant actors and other influential factors that cannot be quantified makes it impossible even to sense it. It is in this context that one should not disregard the importance of other forecasting resources -apart from data- including assumptions, insight and judgment, all of them involving the subjectivity factor. If managing to get over the reef of the NIH syndrome, creativity and broad minded thinking are also essential elements for good forecasting. Question 4 1973 may be granted as the most pivotal year in energy history. The energy crisis defining the period began on October 17, 1973, when the Arab members of OPEC along with Egypt and Syria, all together comprising OAPEC, decided to place an embargo on shipments of crude oil to nations that had supported Israel in its conflict with Syria and Egypt, mainly targeting at the United States and Netherlands. The result of this decision also brought about major oil price increases. Because of the fact that OPEC was the dominant oil distributor at the time, the price increase implied serious impacts on the national economies of the targeted countries, therefore suggesting an international range crisis. Although the embargo was lifted in March 1974, the effects of the energy crisis, mainly in terms of price increase, lingered on throughout the 1970s, with the Iranian crisis aggravating the situation (see also 4.1). Suggesting a crisis that was mainly expressed on the basis of high energy pricing, the outcome of the previous questions concerned with the determination of energy price influential parameters may be illustrated. In fact, the impact of a more or less unanticipated event changed the correlation patterns between supply and demand and imposed the attachment of high tensions in the market balance, the latter entailing the high volatility of oil price and its potential outburst ever since (Regnier, 2007). The market structures, the dominance of OPEC and the political tension, all suggest aspects of the crisis illustrating the importance of considering qualitative parameters as well. As Godet well pointed out, one cannot neglect the wishes and decisions of major actors when configuring the future (e.g. OPEC members). Similar to the 1973 oil crisis, the California energy crisis occurring some 27 years later also revealed the strength of key actors in completely changing what was meant to follow a past trend or ameliorate a past situation. The deregulation of the electricity market in California (during 1998) targeting to decrease the highest of retail prices among the States turned into a complete fiasco that abetted the manipulation of the market by the energy companies. The crisis main characteristics involved very high wholesale prices, interrupted service of customers (rolling blackouts), bankrupt utilities and huge state expenditures, while the crisis main causes were: The lack of new generating capacity inside California (California was heavily dependent on energy imports from nearby states (CEC, 2007a)). The coincidence of a dry year and natural gas spikes with other market oriented factors (California was largely based on hydro and natural gas for the consumers electrification). The market structure allowing generators to manipulate wholesale prices in the power exchange market through escalating power plants outages that caused market disorder (on the other hand there was a retail price cap that did not allow the investor owned utilities to pass the increasing cost of wholesale purchases to consumers). The delay and inability of the regulators to predict the crisis and respond to it (it was only after a certain time that a wholesale cap was set by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and an increase of retail prices was allowed to the investor owned utilities). Emphasizing on the manipulation of the market by the energy generators, in 4.2 one may observe the out of schedule power plant outages rapid increase during the period of the crisis, even exceeding 10GW (approximately 20% of the total installed capacity), responsible for three series of rolling blackouts. No prediction could have captured the 300% and 400% increases of power plants outages. The analogous increase in wholesale prices being the result of the appearing power deficit caused the major suppliers (3 major investor utilities (IOUs)) to be trapped between remarkable wholesale price increases and a fixed retail price (see 4.3). Further, as seen in 4.3, in the early days of deregulation a relatively smooth trend was to be encountered as far as the wholesale market prices are concerned, this also not implying the rapid increase of prices following. Accordingly, although not influenced to the same extent that the IOUs were, the instant impact to the final consumers must also be considered. Note that according to the rough forecast of retail electricity prices -being based on the respective past data- the increase of retail prices was not to be expected either because deregulation promised for a lowering of prices or because the trend applied entailed much lower prices then the ones actually presented at the time (see also 4.4). Similar to this, predictions involving oil pricing before the 1973 crisis and relying on extrapolation techniques (Anon, 1973) expected that world energy consumption would keep up in the increasing rates of 5% up to 2000. If having managed to somehow foresee the 1973 oil price increase, the predictions made would not be exclusively based on the past data trend that would undoubtedly provide a misjudgement of future prices (see also 4.5). What actually followed for the years to come (1980 to 2000) was a 20 years mean annual increase rate of 1.7%. Furthermore, if only having used quantitative data, none could have predicted before the crisis that USA would cut back on oil use. In , 4.6 the response of the USA to the crisis effect reveals the review of energy patterns issued by the government for the times to come. What is also interesting to note in the is the lead time in order to adapt to the new situation encountered (e.g. the natural gas contribution share started increasing 5 year s after the crisis). Another critical point concerning the weaknesses of forecasting previous to crises, not related to the use of numerical past data, may be met in the case of California. Once the regulators and the state adopted a deregulation system that was elsewhere applied successfully (Woo et al., 2003), they decided to proceed in certain modifications (i.e. partial deregulation and imposition of retail price caps) without bothering to consider the different characteristics, features and conditions of operation encountered in the California environment. Hence what might have been thought as successful elsewhere would not be a priori successful in California as well. Finally, if the modification of market structures and potential manipulations had been taken into account via the implementation of alternative scenarios assessing the risk of deregulating the Californian electricity market, certain versatile mechanisms that would instantly respond to a potential crisis may have been put forward. From the analysis provided it becomes clear that forecasting methods that solely rely on past data trends, disregard the wishes of relevant actors and major players, and do not consider the conditions forming the environment where the phenomenon develops cannot capture a broader view of the situation and thus give valid predictions. Question 5 As already addressed, the limited ability of quantitative parameters and extrapolation techniques to provide a valid forecasting, especially in the case where a crisis was to follow, is indisputable. To validate the conclusion made and further support Godets beliefs an example is presently given. Using the installed nuclear power data between 1967 and 1987 along with the application of extrapolation techniques (the forecast function is currently used) one may present the expected nuclear capacity time evolution for the next twenty years. A straightforward comparison of the extrapolation s with the respective real data for the period 1987 to 2007 is available in 5.1. What of course cannot be captured by the extrapolation technique is the Chernobyl crisis, deeply influencing any further development of the nuclear installations. It was on the 26th of April 1986 that reactor number four at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, located in Ukraine exploded. By considering the magnitude of consequences that the Chernobyl accident entailed (UNDP UNICEF, 2002), one may easily realize the cut back of nuclear capacity in the years to come. Furthermore, what is interesting to note is the different influence that the Chernobyl accident had in countries around the world. In 5.2 one may see the immediate response of the Russians, the Germans and the Ukrainians, while it took a little longer for the USA to reconsider its nuclear program. On the contrary, countries like France and Japan continued to install nuclear plants, while on the other hand Italy abandoned its nuclear program and gradually decommissioned all of its plants (NEA, 2007). What is evaluated here, is the conditions configuring the future. Although in a global level, nuclear capacity did stagnate, this was not the case for every country. Depending on each nations needs, requirements and obligations, a different energy policy may be drawn. If not properly weighing these factors in the forecasting process, the outcome cannot be valid. Based on s 5.1 and 5.2, one may also note the lead time of both the international community and the selected countries. Regarding the response of the world as a whole, a period of 3 to 4 years is to be considered for the international community to perform the actions concerned with the decision of cutting back on nuclears. As already noted, a varying response time met in different countries may be partially ascribed to the distance range from the area of the accident. However, a bundle of parameters should be evaluated in order to explain and predict each actors wishes, obligations and decisions. Moreover, when investigating the long term evolution of nuclear power, one should also consider the factor of a rapidly changing environment. Since the Chernobyl accident and the stagnation of nuclear power occurred, any attempt to reestablish previous growth rates has to deal with competitors such as the galloping natural gas market, the return of the coal sector and the maturity of renewable energy technologies (Lovins, 2005). Besides, the considerations regarding waste management, decommissioning expenses and the risk of a new Chernobyl still remain strong. PART B-Introduction Europe becoming increasingly dependent on imported amounts of energy is indisputable. According to the estimations of the recent business as usual scenarios (EC, 2007), it is expected that the energy imports dependency of Europe will increase from the present 50% to a total of 65% by 2030. Within this forecast, reliance on imports of natural gas is expected to increase from 57% to 84% while the respective increase for oil imports shall correspond to an additional 11%, i.e. from 82% to 93%. In this context, European countries and Russia hold a strong interdependency bond based on the significant European energy imports of oil and natural gas supplied by Russia. Note that loss of autonomy is always a side effect of an interdependent relationship as the parties are constrained by their need for one another. Gazprom being the largest Russian company and the greatest natural gas exporter in the world (Cedigaz, 2007) constantly raises its share in the European market, with the respective volume of natural gas supplies reaching 161.5 billion cubic meters during 2006 (Gazprom, 2007), equal to approximately 26% of the total European natural gas needs. Being also Russias single natural gas exporter (according to the Federal Law on Natural Gas Exports adopted in July 2006), Gazprom alone utilizes the existing natural gas pipelines in order to supply Europe (see also Appendix, Existing Natural Gas Pipelines). Meanwhile a series of recent and past events mainly suggesting disputes with Ukraine and Belarus (Bruce, 2005; Stern, 2006) have questioned the security of supply towards Europe, this revealing the potential gaming behavior of the Russians, either to satisfy political purposes or simply take advantage of the energy card in terms of increased pricing. Similar to the 1973 energy crisis and the recent oil price major increases, a scenario concerned with the raise of European natural gas supplies price by Gazprom is to be examined. The scenario supports that unless the desire of Gazprom for a 200% increase of natural gas prices is satisfied, supply towards Europe will be stopped. Question 6 Given the threat of a 200% price increase of natural gas heading towards European countries, an effort is presently carried out in order to investigate the measured responses of both an energy supplier and an energy user being involved in the potential crisis occurrence. Because of the particular features attributed to the subject under investigation, several cases of different energy suppliers and users may be examined. A macroscopic approach may consider two major sides, i.e. the European countries and Gazprom (Russia). However, a closer look focusing on country level and considering organizations as well is thought to be essential in order to better evaluate the situation. As already seen in the previous question concerned with the nuclear power evolution, not all countries responded in the same way to the Chernobyl crisis (NEA, 2007). Working on a country level, energy users will derive from the main Gazprom customers in both Western-Central Europe and the Commonwealth of Indepen dent States (CIS)-Baltic countries (see also Table 6.I). On the other hand, the major energy supplier shall refer to either Gazprom or another natural gas supplier. The alternative of considering different energy sources suppliers will be also outlined. Furthermore, both conservative and more extreme solutions responding to the problem will be considered. Table 6.I: Key s o

Yamaha motors :: essays research papers

Introduction Ever since its founding as a motorcycle manufacturer on July 1, 1955, Yamaha Motor Company has worked to build products which stand among the very best in the world through its constant pursuit of quality; and at the same time, through these products, it has sought to contribute to the quality of life of people all over the world. Following on the success of our motorcycles, Yamaha began manufacturing powerboats and outboard motors in 1960. Since then, we have used our engine and FRP technology as a base to actively expand and diversify our areas of business. Today our fields of influence extend from the land to the sea and even into the skies as our business divisions have grown beyond our Motorcycles operations to include Marine operations, Power Product operations, Automotive Engine operations, Intelligent Machinery operations, Sky operations and our PAS operations. corporate mission We create â€Å"kando† 'Kando' is a Japanese word for the simultaneous feelings of deep satisfaction and intense excitement that we experience when we encounter something of exceptional value. At Yamaha Motor, we believe that Kando can be generated by products and services that surpass customers expectations. We strive to achieve our corporate mission by adhering to three principles: We must remain keenly aware of customers' evolving needs to provide them quality products and services of exceptional value that surpass their expectations. We can and will earn a fair profit by putting forth a superior effort to satisfy our customers. Our corporate environment should be staffed with autonomous, empowered employees. In cultivating our employees' creativity and abilities, we will establish an equitable system of evaluation and rewards. As a good corporate citizen, we act from a worldwide perspective and in accordance with global standards. We will work locally to better the social environment, and think globally in helping preserve the natural environment. 1. Management Policy for 2004 There is some sense of anticipation that the Japanese economy will recover in 2004, reflecting the bottoming out of stock prices. However, business conditions remain unpredictable for Yamaha Motor, resulting from such factors as uncertainty in the U.S. economy, due mainly to the situation in Iraq and the appreciating yen against the U.S. dollar. In 2004, we plan to expedite the reforms spelled out in our medium-term management plan. By implementing global strategies and establishing a profitable structure, we will swiftly build a robust corporate structure capable of withstanding exchange rate fluctuations even if the yen continues to become stronger.

Essay on What Dreams May Come :: What Dreams May Come

What Dreams May Come    When mortality is contemplated, issues of life, death, and the hereafter are usually the first of a myriad of topics to spontaneously arise as if they are from the dark depths of a person's soul. I believe that this is most eloquently stated by Hamlet:    For in that sleep of death what dreams may come, When we have shuffled off this mortal coil, Must give us pause. (III. i.)    This passage served as inspiration for Richard Matheson, the author of the novel, What Dreams May Come. This essay is in two parts: discrepancies between the book and the movie, and views of life/death in the movie and book.    Part I: Discrepancies The first noticeable discrepancy between the book and the movie is that the movie is a movie (meaning that the movie progresses with the characters for the most part except for the occasional flashback) while the book is a retrospective by Chris of his life and escapades written after he is dead. The first chapter of the book opens with a medium at Richard Nielsen's (Chris's brother) door. It appears that after rescuing Annie in her very own, limited edition, private hell, Chris finds a medium, and he pesters her until she agrees to transcribe his journal (it took her six months) and hand deliver it to Richard.    Another major discrepancy between the movie and the book is that in the book the children do not die. In fact, the children are they way that Chris can find his way back to Annie; through their thoughts and prayers. Before Anne dies, Chris gets Albert (not his son in the book) to look up how long Anne is to naturally live. Albert comes back and reports that it is twenty-four years. Chris becomes devistated and worries about it. Then, Anne kills herself. In the book, Anne would not be in her own patented hell forever but for the time she was to live (she still committed suicide). So she would be in her desolate hell for twenty-four years. That doesn't seem too bad but Chris would not hear of such, and then proceeded to persuade Albert to help him get in touch with Anne again.    Richard Matheson became a new-age metaphysical expert in order to write What Dreams May Come. He wanted the book to be as realistic as possible, so he acquired dozens of books (all listed in the Bibliography) and first hand Near Death Experience accounts from people from all walks of life.

Living a Wholehearted Life

Book Project: Living a Wholehearted Life Jannie Jenkins Dixie State University â€Å"The Gifts of Imperfection†, by Brene Brown, writer and research professor at the University of Houston Graduate College of Social Work. The book is written to open people's minds to the power and impact of living a wholehearted life. Brown confronts the dark emotions that get in the way of leading a fuller life and pursues the behavior of courage. She shares ten guideposts on the power of Wholehearted living, and what we can do to achieve our way of engaging with the world from a place of worthiness.Each guidepost explores the power of love, belonging, and being enough as they each help us lead to recognize and act on our gifts of imperfection: courage, compassion, and connection. The key to living a wholehearted life is to embrace the gifts of imperfection. Guidepost number one: cultivating authenticity. Professor Brown explains that she has this as her first step to achieve wholeheartedness because we cannot be happy when we are constantly worrying about what others think of us. We must forget what other people might be thinking of us and be our real selves.When we on't embrace our true self, we deny ourselves of the many Joys of Just living. We are cultivating courage when we practice authenticity and allow ourselves to be vulnerable. Guidepost number two: cultivating self-compassion. With Brown's research, we learn that fear and shame are two major obstacles to accomplishing high self-worth and practicing self-compassion. When we let fear overcome us, we push away all ideas of aspiring our dreams and moving forward; when we get trapped in our box of shame, we Judge our self and others.Brown urges her readers to realize that veryone experiences those feelings of suffering or inadequacy, but we have the choice of being warm and understanding toward ourselves rather than comparing and putting ourselves down. If we are compassionate with ourselves, we will experience emp athy towards others, leading to our gift of compassion for others as well. Guidepost number three: cultivating a resilient spirit. Brown describes resilience as the ability to overcome adversity. Everyone goes through some sort of trial, but it's how we handle the hardships that define us.Overcoming adversity is the hardest part of living, then how do we become resilient? With her research, Brown made a list of protective factors†the things that help us move forward in adversity†and according to the people she interviewed, the very foundation of the protective factors was their spirituality She defines spirituality as, â€Å"recognizing and celebrating that we are all inextricably connected to each other by a power greater than all of us†(2010, pg. 56). Practicing spirituality brings a sense of perspective, meaning, and purpose into our lives.Guidepost number four: cultivating gratitude and Joy. Brown made the connection that all those who described themselves as Joyful or living a Joyful life, ctively practices gratitude. The best way to cultivate Joy and practice gratitude is by slowing down our constant rushed lives. People get so caught up in the â€Å"must's† and the â€Å"do's† in life to achieve happiness that they unknowingly reject what could be joyful moments. Brown consistently emphasizes the importance of acknowledging that, â€Å"l am enough. † Guidepost number five: cultivating intuition and trusting faith.Brown defines intuition as our ability to hold room for uncertainty and our willingness to trust the many ways we've developed knowledge and insight. She also goes into depth about he importance of having faith. To engage in a wholehearted life means we must believe without seeing. Guidepost number six: cultivating creativity. What keeps people from cultivating their own creativity is comparison. Comparison is all about conformity and competition; we feel the need to fit in or outstand! When we create, we produce meaning. Brown tells us to let go of comparison.Guidepost number seven: cultivating play and rest. Brown gives numerous examples from her life as well as others about how much more meaningful their lives are when they exercise proper rest and adequate time to play. When we play we shape our brains, harbor empathy, and work through complex social groups. â€Å"Play is at the core of creativity and innovation. † She incorporates rest by explaining that we cannot live full lives without respecting our bodies' need for renewal. Play and rest cultivate connection. Guidepost number eight: cultivating calm and stillness.It is impossible to live wholeheartedly when anxiety is pressing us down. Brown emphasizes in this section the meaningfulness that comes from multiple forms of meditation. Guidepost number nine: cultivating meaningful work. Professor Brown describes eaningful work as feeling a tremendous sense of accomplishment and purpose from work. What keeps people from a chieving meaningful work is their self-doubt. Self-doubt blocks our process of finding our talents and sharing them with the world; self-doubt is letting our fear undermine our faith.Brown encourages us to establish who we are by determining our gifts and what we do with them. Guidepost number ten: cultivating laughter, song, and dance. We have to let goof being cool and â€Å"always in control. † By doing so, we allow ourselves to express ourselves in ways that make us feel the most Joy and satisfaction. Brene Brown's book is not a â€Å"how to† book (although there were times where I wished it was), it's a book that pulls out our understanding of how we choose to live. Her guideposts are all choices that we have to make.The only way we can create a life of living with our whole hearts is by practice. Brown's book influences us to make choices of how we live our lives, but we must choose to practice. We won't become self-resilient, authentic, self-compassionate, or mo re grateful if we Just sit and wait tor them to come to us. We nave to constantly practice and better ourselves, then we an live a more fulfilled life. This book covers the confusing emotions we as humans all go through. I have been able to more fully grasp and understand what things get in the way of my own personal wholehearted living.It's funny to me because everything she talks about is so plain and simple; it's common logic but yet we still feel unworthy, abandoned, or unloved. Something that I have struggled with in my life is perfectionism. Brene Brown defines perfectionism as the belief that if we live perfect, look perfect, and act perfect, we will avoid the pain of blame, Judgment, and shame. This definition really it me because I believed that I would only be loved, approved, and accepted if I were â€Å"perfect. † I worry about what other people think of me which denies me, what could be, wonderful opportunities.I am afraid to put anything out in the world that co uld be imperfect because I am afraid of failing, making a mistake, or disappointing someone. Perfectionism is self-destructive and I believe my perfectionism is what keeps me from feeling confident in myself. When I was reading about this, I wondered what can I do to get rid of this toxic belief. The number one thing is to practice self-compassion. Self-compassion consists of three elements: self-kindness, common humanity, and mindfulness.I often beat myself with self-criticism when I suffer, fail, or feel inadequate rather than being warm and understanding towards myself, self-kind. Something that I persistently try to remember when I'm going through something difficult is that it's common humanity. Suffering and feeling inadequate is Just part of the human experience. Everyone has his or her struggles and is trying their best to get through them; it is not Just â€Å"me† alone. Since reading about this, IVe been practicing self-compassion so I can lower my perfectionistic w ay f thinking. It really is a huge difference how I perceive my life.I'm accepting that it's okay to go for those moments and opportunities that make me vulnerable because I'm not perfect and I don't have to be; I'm embracing my true self while letting go of what others think of me. I do feel as if my soul is more fulfilled. Going along with perfectionism, comparison is another thing that gets in the way of living my wholehearted life. Comparison is all about conformity and competition. When we compare, we want to be like everyone else (â€Å"fit in†), but better. I refused to believe hat I was trapped in that exhausting hole of comparing myself to others because I knew I shouldn't be thinking like that.I realized though that in order for me to embrace my gifts of imperfection, courage, compassion, and connection, I have to acknowledge my weaknesses and shortcomings such as comparison. I continue to practice avoiding comparison because I know when I focus on being better or b eing the odd one out, I am not happy. I tend to forget about working on my authenticity, or gratitude when I'm spending all my time and energy conforming and competing. I lso have become aware that it's okay to be me. I Just need to focus on going through my life at my pace, by my rules while everyone else is going throughout their life at their pace and by their rules.Some may be faster, some slower, but the best thing I can do is smile, pat them on the back, feel happy for what theyre achieving and Just keep going. When I'm not comparing myself to others I feel good about my self and about my life. Recognizing my struggles with perfectionism and comparison, and working to overcome them, nave been major steps tor me living a more tultllled lite However, the biggest thing that stood out to me personally was how important spirituality and gratitude are in achieving wholeheartedness.IVe always had a strong belief in my faith and religion, but it was neat to see from Professor Brown's research that having spirituality is a core component of wholeheartedness. It's not just me who relies and believes on my faith to become resilient, the ability to overcome adversity. Everyone needs to believe and celebrate that we are all inextricably connected to each other by a power greater than all of us, and that our onnection to that power and to one another is grounded in love and compassion (2010, pg. 64). Practicing spirituality brings healing and creates resilience.We all have to define spirituality in a way that inspires us. I know, and have known for a long time, that my life would be drastically different without my spirituality. It truly does give me peace, comfort, and strength leading into a sense of perspective, meaning, and purpose in my life. Finally, the other thing that stood out to me next to spirituality was cultivating gratitude and Joy. I think the reason this hits me hard is ecause everyone is striving to live a fulfilled life, and to me, a fulfilled life is a Joyful life.We all are wanting to be happy, but this world is filled with so much pain, suffering, and sorrow that it's hard to remain happy. Practicing gratitude is the essence of living Joyfully. When we are grateful, we immediately shut out our feelings that make up shame and destroy our happiness. The catch is that gratitude is a constant action and must be consistently practiced. Something that IVe done to practice having an attitude of gratitude is stating out loud things I'm grateful for hen fear or anxiety is creeping up on me.When I verbally express my gratitude, a feeling of warm Joy really does overcome me; I no longer feel worthless or inadequate because I'm recognizing that I have enough, that I am enough! Through recognizing my shortcomings with perfectionism and comparison and also living a life of gratitude and Joy, I have been more able to embrace who I am. I live a life of imperfection, but I am enough. I have the potential to do amazing things when I live who leheartedly, going throughout life with courage, compassion, and connection.